OFFICIAL TRUMP is currently trading around $12.86, after experiencing a strong correction in the last two days from a short-term peak near $15.70. This decline was triggered by an overbought phenomenon along with a break from short-term upward channels, causing market sentiment to become cautious even though the long-term trend remains bullish.
Price action analysis: Nearby support and resistance zones
On the 4-hour chart, the price action shows a clear rejection at the upper band of the Bollinger Band at $15.90 on May 22. Subsequently, the price quickly broke through key EMA lines:
20-EMA: $13.69
50-EMA: $13.57
100-EMA: $13.23
Moreover, the price touched the 200-EMA at $12.62 before a slight rebound. Currently, the lower Bollinger Band around $12.41 is acting as temporary support, while the area between $13.20 – $13.70 (including the 100-EMA and 20-EMA) will be the first resistance zone if the price continues to recover.
However, the expansion of the Bollinger Band along with long upper shadow candles indicates that selling pressure is still present, making recovery attempts susceptible to quick sell-offs.
Why is the OFFICIAL TRUMP price declining?
The main reason for the current decline lies not in fundamental factors but mainly due to the exhaustion of technical buying momentum and breakdown signals from overbought regions.
On the 30-minute chart, the RSI indicator is at 44.18, unable to surpass the 50 threshold in the latest rebound, indicating weak upward momentum.
MACD remains below the signal line, although the histogram has turned slightly positive – this reflects that selling pressure is slowing down but buyers have not regained control.
Stoch RSI is also approaching the overbought zone (82.91), increasing the likelihood of profit-taking pressure if there is no clear breakout above the $13.20 zone.
Technical view: Downtrend line & Ichimoku Cloud
Structurally, OFFICIAL TRUMP is being held below a short-term downtrend line extending from the peak on May 22, with nearby resistance at $13.73. To reverse the short-term trend, the price needs to decisively break through this zone, combined with confirming signals from RSI and MACD.
On the 30-minute frame, Ichimoku analysis shows the price oscillating just below the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen, but still below the Kumo cloud.
The forward cloud continues to have a bearish bias, with no 'twist' signal – indicating that the recovery trend has yet to be confirmed.
Important price levels to watch
Short-term outlook: Cautious recovery or deeper decline?
In the short term, OFFICIAL TRUMP price volatility remains high, with no clear accumulation zone formed. The cautious recovery scenario remains valid as long as the price stays above $12.40. However, if buyers cannot reclaim the $13.70 – $14.00 zone, the risk of returning to test lower supports like $11.87 or even $10.80 remains significant.
Conclusion: Technical correction – not yet a reversal
Overall, the current decline can be seen as a 'resting' technical phase within the main bullish trend rather than a reversal signal. However, to confirm the return of the uptrend, OFFICIAL TRUMP needs:
Maintain support at $12.40
Break resistance at $13.70 with high liquidity
RSI above 50 and MACD has a bullish crossover
If these conditions are not met before May 26, the risk of a deeper correction will continue to exist.