The Fed's Interest Rate Dilemma: A Carefully Designed Political Game is Underway

The monetary policy game between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration has entered a heated stage. The latest data shows that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded 5%, exposing the deep-seated crisis in the dollar system:

1) The Debt Dilemma:

- 5% yield is hard to counter 3% inflation erosion

- Negative real yields lead to capital flight

- The Federal Reserve is caught in a vicious cycle of "no one buys when rates rise, and even fewer buy when rates fall"

2) Political Game:

- The Federal Reserve shifts the blame for inflation onto Trump's tariff policy

- Trump faces a dilemma of "lowering tariffs and losing face" or "maintaining tariffs and taking the blame"

- Experts predict potential "cut first, raise later" tariff tricks

3) Economic Time Bomb:

- Long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise

- Capital outflow pressure intensifies

- Restarting QE will trigger even more severe inflation

The final outcome of this monetary policy game will directly affect global capital flows and interest rate cut expectations for the second half of the year. Market analysts warn that the Fed's delaying tactics are exhausting policy space, while the Trump administration's unpredictability could plunge the U.S. economy into a deeper crisis.