Bitcoin 1-Hour Short-Term Analysis:
Price Aspect:
Current price is $107,389, just dropped to the 24-hour low of $106,800. The candlestick chart shows a strong downward momentum, with each rebound peak lower than the previous one, and the lows continuously declining, indicating a typical downtrend. Although the candlestick chart occasionally shows lower shadows and slight upward small candlesticks, indicating that some people are trying to buy the dip, this level of buying pressure is not enough to stop the decline.
Indicator Interpretation:
1. RSI is currently at 21.46, having fallen into the oversold zone. Historical experience suggests that there may be a rebound or sideways movement at this time, but it should be noted that the decline is too fierce right now, and the indicator may stay in the oversold zone for a long time. Don’t rush in just because it’s oversold.
2. Both lines of MACD are diving downwards, and the histogram is blood red and continues to lengthen. This is like pressing the accelerator deeper in a car, with no signs of weakening downward momentum.
3. The small dots of the Parabolic SAR indicator are all pressing above the candlesticks, indicating that there are no signs of a brake, and the decline is still ongoing.
Volume Changes:
Recently, the trading volume of several large bearish candles has increased, indicating that those selling off are intensifying their efforts, which is not a good sign.
Two Possible Scenarios Ahead:
1. Continue to fall: If the volume breaks below the support level of $106,800, it is very likely to drop to $106,500 or even lower, like a stone rolling down a slope that cannot stop.
2. Short-term rebound: If RSI triggers a rebound, it might bounce up to the range of $107,800-$108,800 at most. But note that there are many trapped positions here, and it is likely to bounce to this level and then be sold off again, just like a ball hitting the ceiling will bounce back.
Personal Opinion:
It is clearly a bearish market now, and all indicators point to a decline. Although overselling may trigger a small rebound, trying to catch the bottom against the trend is like catching a flying knife with bare hands—too risky.
My suggestion is: those who are short can continue to hold, and those wanting to buy the dip should wait for a clear reversal signal before acting.
Remember, don't go against the trend in a downtrend.
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