Expectations vs. 'Reality' in the Crypto Game: Trump's Dinner, Who is Manipulating the Market's Nerves?
On May 22, 2025, Trump's crypto dinner became an absurd market experiment—TRUMP tokens skyrocketed before the event, only to plummet when guests were seated. This is not a coincidence, but rather the core logic of how the crypto market operates: prices do not depend on facts, but on how the market interprets signals.
1. Overdrawn Expectations: The market prices on 'rumors' and sells on 'facts'
TRUMP tokens surged 50% in the 48 hours before the dinner, but by the time the event truly began, prices had already retreated. The same happened during the Bitcoin ETF approval—before the SEC’s website crashed, insider information had already been priced in, and the formal announcement became a selling opportunity.
Pattern:
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Liquidity trap: TRUMP's daily trading volume is $3.8 billion, but real liquidity is only $5 million, making it easy for speculators to control the market.
2. The Securities of Political Narratives: When power becomes a trading asset
Trump's team tied token holdings to political resources (such as access to the White House), essentially tokenizing 'influence'. However, this model relies on continuous hot topics for stimulation—once the narrative stagnates (such as regulatory crackdowns), prices collapse immediately.
3. Who is Manipulating the Market? The Collusion of Speculators, Media, and Algorithms
Speculators control the market: 80% of TRUMP tokens are held by the core team, and unlocking them leads to a market crash.
Media amplifiers: News from Bloomberg and Cointelegraph is often used as a manipulation tool (such as “SEC delays ETF” fake news).
Algorithmic resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO through recommendation algorithms, creating a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'.
4. The Ultimate Truth of the Crypto Market: Signals are Reality
In this world:
A single tweet from Trump (“America embraces crypto”) can cause SOL to soar 70% in a day.
A vague policy draft can trigger a $10 billion capital migration.
The real 'events' become irrelevant—the market has already harvested expectations.
Conclusion: We Live in a Crypto Version of 'The Truman Show'
When prices are driven by 'narratives' rather than 'facts', investing turns into an information war. The only certainty is that the next wave will still be created by expectations and will fade before reality arrives.
