While historical cycle tops in BTC/USD have been accompanied by RSI spikes reaching long‐term descending resistance, the current monthly RSI is forming a clean bull flag pattern, well away from those overextended levels. This signals a healthy continuation phase rather than an imminent top.
Market Structure:
BTC/USD has confirmed a macro break of market structure (BMS) with a sequence of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) on the monthly timeframe. The current move is consistent with prior expansion phases seen early in previous cycles.
RSI Behaviour:
The monthly RSI is bull flagging, not topping. This is a key distinction:
In previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), macro tops coincided with RSI touches on a long-term descending resistance line from overbought conditions.
Current RSI levels remain well below those extremes.
The RSI is consolidating in a textbook bullish continuation pattern, signalling latent upside potential.
This divergence from past topping conditions suggests we are mid-cycle, not late-stage.
Cycle Timing:
The historical 4-year cycle remains remarkably consistent:
Major peaks occurred 47–49 months after prior cycle lows.
Based on this timing structure, Q4 2025 (October ±1 month) aligns with a potential top if the pattern repeats.
The current structural and RSI setup supports this timing but does not contradict it.
Volume Profile:
Monthly volume continues to decline cycle-over-cycle. This is often misunderstood as weakness, but in context, it indicates market maturation and reduced retail-driven volatility. Historically, volume spikes near tops, not during steady bullish continuation like we see now.
Conclusion:
BTC is showing a clean technical structure supported by:
Bullish market structure (HH, HL, BMS)
Monthly RSI bull flag pattern with room to rise
Cycle timing aligned with Q4 2025 macro top expectations
Volume behaviour consistent with early/mid-cycle movement
There are no current technical signs of a macro top. RSI is not overextended. The price structure is constructive. The cycle clock is ticking, but it's not yet near midnight.
Expert takeaway: Watch monthly RSI closely as it approaches the long-term resistance line. Until that breaks—or we see divergence—the dominant bias remains bullish.