Crypto analyst Dan Gambaradello, founder of Crypto Capital Venture, has once again instilled optimism in Cardano (ADA) supporters, boldly stating that the next major rise of ADA 'hasn't happened yet, but is coming.'
In a recent post and accompanying video analysis, Gambaradello zoomed in on the monthly chart of Cardano. He identified several technical signals that, in his opinion, strongly resemble patterns observed just before major bullish cycles of ADA.
While many in the crypto community remain skeptical, Gambaradello maintains a firm optimistic outlook and is not afraid to speak about it.
Gambaradello: Monthly MACD for Cardano reflects past explosive rally setups
Gambaradello's focus is on the MACD indicator on the monthly timeframe, where he observes early signs of a bullish crossover. The histogram has begun ticking brightly green — an event that in the past preceded explosive rallies of ADA.
Monthly MACD, source: Dan Gambaradello.
Drawing comparisons to the end of 2020, he notes a similar MACD pattern that preceded the rise of ADA from $0.11 to over $1 in a few months. 'There are still more than eight days left in the monthly candle, and anything can happen,' Gambaradello warned, adding:
'But the fact that the MACD histogram is now shifting to the green side is very interesting to me.'
He emphasizes that while macroeconomic signals look promising, it is crucial not to ignore short-term downside risks — a lesson reinforced by ADA's history. Even after bullish MACD crossovers in the past, Cardano experienced some sideways or downward price movement before fully taking off.
Cardano's risk model has reached a low score, echoing the pre-bullish zone of November 2020.
Another optimistic signal comes from the proprietary risk model of Cardano from Crypto Capital Venture, which currently assigns ADA a score of 42 — a level last seen in November 2020, just before the previous parabolic rise of ADA.
Gambaradello claims that structurally ADA mirrors the same consolidation behavior, while the low-risk zone reinforces the idea that a major movement is forming. 'We have definitely been here before,' he stated, adding:
'This does not guarantee a rally, but this is exactly the situation that preceded the last bullish cycle.'
Short-term battle for ADA: inverted head and shoulders against 200-day MA resistance
As it approaches, Gambaradello also analyzes the short-term price action of ADA. Notably, Cardano recently completed a breakout of an inverted head and shoulders, with a return to the neckline finding support at the 20-day moving average. However, it now faces immediate resistance at the 200-day moving average, a key battleground for both bulls and bears.
If the resistance gives way, Gambaradello sees $1 as the next important target, calling it both a psychological and technical milestone. He emphasizes that reaching this level will not only fulfill the projection of a breakout from the inverted 'head and shoulders' model but will also signify a change in the ADA narrative in the market.
Source: TradingView
Beyond $1, he highlights a more ambitious growth target: the 'bull market door' zone of $1.20–$1.25, a level that has already shown historical significance as resistance.
Gambaradello's forecasts align with Fibonacci levels and the RSI readings, which stand at 64.76, indicating that while ADA is not overbought, there is a chance of a minor correction before the next rally higher.