Little Fatty is here! Trump's latest moves are even more thrilling than the crypto market rollercoaster! 🚀💥 He just announced a 50% tariff on the EU, also threatening Apple with a 25% tariff, directly crashing European and American stock markets, and gold jumped 1.9%! What about our crypto market? Let me break it down for you:
1. Rising risk aversion, is Bitcoin becoming 'digital gold'?
History always seems remarkably similar! The last time Trump imposed tariffs (in April), Bitcoin rose in a single month, crushing gold's gains by two times! This time, as soon as the news broke, spot gold surged, but Bitcoin's reaction was more 'ambiguous'—although it didn't take off immediately, volatility in the futures market clearly increased, with the amount of liquidated contracts instantly exceeding 100 million. It seems some funds are treating BTC as a safe-haven backup, but others are still waiting and watching.
2. Fed rate hike or cut? Directly affects the life and death of the crypto market!
Trump's latest tariffs may backfire: If they lead to a rebound in U.S. inflation (for example, if import prices rise by 20%), the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates, which would be a devastating blow to Bitcoin (rate hikes = increased cost of capital, high-risk assets are sold off). However, if the tariffs trigger a global economic recession, the Fed might instead cut rates and inject liquidity, allowing Bitcoin to ride the wave of 'easing benefits'. The market now feels like it's playing Russian roulette, waiting to see how the data will unfold after the June 1 tariff deadline!
3. Liquidity crisis? Bitcoin may become the 'buyer of last resort'!
Don't forget that the trade war could lead to a breakdown of global supply chains, tightening corporate cash flows. Last year, a major company faced stockpiling due to tariffs, resulting in inventory buildup that crashed its stock price. If a similar situation spreads, institutions may be forced to sell Bitcoin to cash out, turning Bitcoin into a 'liquid asset' that gets dumped. So, I suggest: managing positions is more important than bottom-fishing!
4. Long-term benefits? Decentralized properties become a 'talisman'!
Standard Chartered Bank's latest report mentions: Bitcoin's 'decentralized characteristics' may have advantages over gold during financial system turmoil. If the U.S. credit system is damaged by tariffs, Bitcoin's 'censorship resistance' could attract more capital inflow. However, this needs time to verify; in the short term, we still have to watch market sentiment.
Summary: In the short term, the crypto market is looking at 'scripts', but in the long term, it's about policies!
- June 1 tariff implementation: If truly enforced, global market panic could push Bitcoin to $130,000, but if inflation spikes afterwards, it could be driven back down.
- July Fed meeting: Strong rate cut expectations are bullish for cryptocurrencies; rate hikes are bearish.
- EU countermeasures: Retaliatory tariffs could trigger a crash in U.S. stocks, with funds possibly turning to the crypto market for safety.
I suggest:
👉 Short-term: Focus on the June 1 milestone, hold light positions, and don't chase highs!
👉 Medium-term: Keep an eye on the Fed's inflation data; if rate hike expectations rise, reduce positions, and if rate cut expectations are strong, increase positions.
👉 Long-term: Bitcoin's property as 'digital gold' is being validated, but don't let your position exceed 20% of total funds!
Finally, I leave you with four words: cash is king, staying alive is the most important! 💸💸💸 This tariff storm has just begun, let's cherish the moment as we go!
