The latest market structure of Dogecoin is 'significantly better than previous bull markets', according to Kevin, a cryptocurrency technical expert known on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA. In a video released on Friday, the analyst charted three historical cycles of Dogecoin, concluding that the current breakout and retest pattern of the meme coin places the long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80–$3.90 'on the table'—provided one major condition holds: Bitcoin must continue to rise.

“In two consecutive cycles, Dogecoin has tagged the fib extension level of 1.618,” Kevin reminded the audience. “We are in the third cycle… we have evidence showing this has happened 100% of the time. However, that’s just two data points, so it could easily not happen this time.”

Why $3.80 for Each Dogecoin Is Feasible in This Cycle

On the weekly logarithmic chart, Kevin has tracked Dogecoin’s first super cycle—consolidation, breakout, retracement mid-cycle, blow-off top—peaking at the 1.618 extension level. The second cycle repeats the pattern, but 'Elon Musk's hype during Saturday Night Live' pushed prices well beyond the fib target into the euphoric zone.

The third cycle today, he argued, looks healthier: the successive breakouts and retests of the bear market range have created a gradually rising channel of higher highs and higher lows anchored by the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. “To me, this structure looks really good… breakout, retest the 200 level, creating higher lows—that's textbook.”

On the monthly chart, the Relative Strength Index 'is just strength—continuously higher lows', still well below the 80-90 zone that capped previous cycle tops. Kevin also noted a V-shaped curve in the monthly Stoch RSI—a signal 'that will provide the momentum we need to really have a sustainable bull run' as it crosses above the 20 line.

The Market Cipher reading over two weeks shows three years of increasingly strong momentum waves and inflowing capital. 'This is a big deal,' he said, circling each extension. 'Momentum is building up and accumulating to a point where it’s like, okay, now is the time to release it.'

He added that the Stoch RSI crossing over for two weeks historically tends to precede 'a strong upward move, a breakout', implying that the post-halving phase could open up the next parabolic rally for Dogecoin.

For traders focused on closer horizons, Kevin highlighted a macro golden bag spanning from $0.26 to $0.285, reinforced by the daily SMA line at $0.27. That area covers an emerging bullish flag with a measured target move of $0.32–$0.33. This pattern stems from a reverse head and shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a level he 'strongly accumulated', now up about 60%.

“Consider resistance as resistance until it’s not,” he warned, noting that Bitcoin’s dominance near 64% still siphons liquidity from altcoins. However, he sees 'serious signs' that the dominance has created a local top at 65.45%, opening up opportunities for rotation into major coins like Ethereum and, by proxy, Dogecoin.

This Needs to Happen

If Bitcoin stabilizes and macro conditions—declining inflation, stable labor data, Fed easing potential—remain supportive, “the next major price target” for Kevin is the all-time high of 2021 just under $1.00. A decisive breakout there would shift attention to the 1.618 extension level of nearly $3.80.

He stated, “I would be very surprised at this point if we don’t reach that level,” while emphasizing disciplined profit-taking: “There’s nothing worse than riding a bullish trend without taking profits.”

Kevin dismissed the wild predictions of six and seven dollar price levels circulating on social media but asserted that Dogecoin reaching a price above $3 is 'entirely possible' if Bitcoin moves towards $200,000, quantitative tightening ends, and an altcoin season explodes.

Dogecoin remains 'one of the most popular cryptocurrencies on the planet', the analyst remarked. 'When retail investors rush in, they always flock to Dogecoin.' That psychological feedback loop, combined with a structured bullish chart and improving momentum metrics, reinforces his belief that the meme coin can continue to play a leading role in a broader altcoin rally.

Whether the market can generate the necessary macro dynamics is an unknown. But Kevin’s message is not ambiguous: currently, the technical picture of Dogecoin paints a reliable path to $1 and the elusive $3.80 milestone 'is possible - if Bitcoin holds strong and macro conditions remain favorable'.