This time, Bitcoin rapidly rose from the bottom of 74,500 to break new highs. If the upward momentum weakens in the next few days, this may only be a local top for Bitcoin, rather than a step towards higher prices.
In the coming days, focus on the following four dimensions to determine whether this surge is a buildup for another push or a temporary peak:
Whether ETF net inflows continue to increase
On May 19-20, the spot BTC ETF attracted over 600 million USD in a single day, setting a new high for the month; if inflows slow down or even turn negative, it often indicates that institutional marginal buying is cooling off.
Whether the premium and Funding Rate further increase
Currently, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts is approaching 9%, making "long positions more expensive"; if the rate continues to rise while spot trading volume does not keep up, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction of long position liquidations.
Macro sentiment: US Treasury real yields & USD liquidity
Before the Federal Reserve's June meeting, short-term real rates remain high; once "interest rate cut expectations fail + liquidity withdrawal" occurs, high Beta assets usually correct before macroeconomic deterioration.
