Is the market repeating its historical path?
Since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has consistently evolved through the logic of "halving-driven—supply-demand imbalance—bull market outbreak—top correction," with each cycle ending at a higher price peak. The double top structure in 2021 is undoubtedly the most cautionary lesson to heed.
Bitcoin first reached a phase high in April 2021, driven by multiple positive factors such as the favorable stimulus from Coinbase's listing, the continuation of loose monetary policy, and Grayscale's GBTC continuous accumulation. Market sentiment soared, and the price broke through the $60,000 mark for the first time.
However, this peak did not last long. In May, with the Federal Reserve signaling balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes, combined with the policy risk of large-scale shutdowns of domestic mining operations in China, the Bitcoin market quickly fell into correction, dropping to around $30,000 in less than three months, completing a deep adjustment in the middle.
A few months later, the market gradually digested negative sentiment and rebounded towards the end of summer. With positive news such as El Salvador officially adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin briefly surged to its historical peak of approximately $69,000 on November 10, before quickly retreating, forming a distinct, multi-month double top structure alongside the April high.
Ultimately, this triple resonance of new price highs, active on-chain realization, and shrinking demand constituted a typical false breakout pattern. After a brief peak, Bitcoin quickly fell back, initiating a downward cycle. This structure technically presented as a local new high + volume divergence + instant reversal, serving as a typical double top signal, and providing a significant cautionary tale for the current market approaching historical highs.
The slope and shape of the current trend are quite similar to those before November 2021. More importantly, multiple on-chain indicators are releasing signals of structural convergence. Although investor sentiment has warmed slightly, with some funds choosing to take profits in the floating profit range, the overall market has not yet entered an imbalanced state dominated by "collective realization momentum."
This means that while the upward space is initially suppressed, the market is not out of control. As long as subsequent liquidity remains stable, the market still has the conditions for continued structural upward movement, rather than being pushed to an ultimate peak.
#BTC
Since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has consistently evolved through the logic of "halving-driven—supply-demand imbalance—bull market outbreak—top correction," with each cycle ending at a higher price peak. The double top structure in 2021 is undoubtedly the most cautionary lesson to heed.
Bitcoin first reached a phase high in April 2021, driven by multiple positive factors such as the favorable stimulus from Coinbase's listing, the continuation of loose monetary policy, and Grayscale's GBTC continuous accumulation. Market sentiment soared, and the price broke through the $60,000 mark for the first time.
However, this peak did not last long. In May, with the Federal Reserve signaling balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes, combined with the policy risk of large-scale shutdowns of domestic mining operations in China, the Bitcoin market quickly fell into correction, dropping to around $30,000 in less than three months, completing a deep adjustment in the middle.
A few months later, the market gradually digested negative sentiment and rebounded towards the end of summer. With positive news such as El Salvador officially adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, Bitcoin briefly surged to its historical peak of approximately $69,000 on November 10, before quickly retreating, forming a distinct, multi-month double top structure alongside the April high.
Ultimately, this triple resonance of new price highs, active on-chain realization, and shrinking demand constituted a typical false breakout pattern. After a brief peak, Bitcoin quickly fell back, initiating a downward cycle. This structure technically presented as a local new high + volume divergence + instant reversal, serving as a typical double top signal, and providing a significant cautionary tale for the current market approaching historical highs.
The slope and shape of the current trend are quite similar to those before November 2021. More importantly, multiple on-chain indicators are releasing signals of structural convergence. Although investor sentiment has warmed slightly, with some funds choosing to take profits in the floating profit range, the overall market has not yet entered an imbalanced state dominated by "collective realization momentum."
This means that while the upward space is initially suppressed, the market is not out of control. As long as subsequent liquidity remains stable, the market still has the conditions for continued structural upward movement, rather than being pushed to an ultimate peak.
#BTC
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