5.23 68558761061 Bitcoin Market Analysis

Key Support and Resistance: The current key support is in the range of $108,000 - $110,000. If it breaks below, it may trigger a technical correction; resistance is concentrated at $111,800 and $114,000.

1. Market Momentum

- Trading volume has decreased after hitting a new high, indicating that some investors are taking profits, while retail participation has dropped to 3.2%, far below the previous 30%, suggesting that the current rise is mainly driven by institutional funds.

- Technical indicators show short-term overbought risks: RSI is near 70, the MACD histogram is shortening, and the KDJ value is 83, indicating increased pressure for a correction.

Key Drivers

1. Continuous inflow of institutional funds

- This week, net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $1.5 billion, and BlackRock's IBIT fund has assets under management of $66.9 billion, with institutional holdings accounting for 6% of Bitcoin's market value, becoming a core support for the price.

- The trend of companies hoarding Bitcoin continues, with MicroStrategy's holdings increasing to 576,230 BTC, reinforcing long-term bullish expectations.

2. Policies and Macroeconomics

- The U.S. 'GENIUS Stablecoin Act' has passed preliminary voting in the Senate, paving the way for compliant funds to enter the market; the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the weakening dollar further attract funds into the crypto market.

- Turmoil in traditional financial markets (such as rising U.S. Treasury yields and falling stock markets) drives demand for safe havens, aligning the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and gold, reinforcing its 'digital gold' attribute.

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- Bullish Opportunity: If the price stabilizes above $110,000 and breaks through $111,800 with volume, a light position can be taken, targeting $114,000, with a stop loss set below $109,500.

- Buy on Dip: If the price falls back to the $108,000 - $110,000 range, positions can be built in batches, with a stop loss set at $107,000, targeting above $112,000.

- Risk Hedging

- Significant short-term overbought signals suggest pairing holdings with options protection or reverse contracts to hedge against correction risks, with a focus on the validity of the $108,000 support.