【Countdown to Bitcoin Frenzy? Historical Data Sounds the Alarm】
On-chain indicators have turned yellow! Historical backtesting shows that when the market greed index surpasses the threshold of 85, Bitcoin often triggers the peak curse. The current indicator is at a level of 75, combined with the Federal Reserve's delayed "wolf is coming" tactic, this round's rebound ceiling may lie in the range of $115,000 to $120,000 — the current price has reached $112,000, leaving only a final sprint to the theoretical top.
What is concerning is that this round of market has consumed over 70% of the annual gains, and smart money is gradually retreating. The Shiyu team has been bullish from $70,000 until now, and the recent sudden shift to bearish is certainly not coincidental — when miner positions sharply decrease and net inflows to exchanges surge, it often indicates a prelude to whale sell-offs.
The window of opportunity for bulls is closing quickly! According to cyclical patterns, there is a high probability of a "golden pit" appearing in July-August, and the extreme panic index will create opportunities for a counterattack. Remember: the tail end of a bull market carries barbs; don't let greed nail you as a landmark on Everest.
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