#CryptoAdoption #BTCBreaksATH110K #bullrun The cryptocurrency market does not obey linear logic. It is a system with high sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts, mass psychology, and the internal cycles of the blockchain economy itself. The main growth, the so-called bull run, begins when several independent waves overlap and create an area of probabilistic resonance. To understand when the next powerful growth of the crypto market might begin, let's consider the most important historical and economic signals affecting this system.
The first of these is Bitcoin halvings. These are programmed events where the reward for miners is halved. Halvings occur approximately every four years and create a shortage of new supply. The first halving took place in November 2012, and about 12 months later, in November 2013, the market sharply rose. The second halving occurred in July 2016, and by December 2017, the market reached its peak - this was 17 months later. The third halving was in May 2020, and the peak price occurred in November 2021 - the delay was 18 months. Thus, we can identify three main intervals of delay between the halving and the peak: 12, 17, and 18 months. Their average is 15.7 months. The next halving took place in April 2024. Adding 15.7 months to it gives us the predicted activation point at the end of July or the beginning of August 2025. It is at this time that the system will once again enter the phase in which growth was historically launched.
The second factor is global liquidity. When central banks begin to ease monetary policy, investors seek high-yield assets. This happened in 2020 when the markets received strong support from quantitative easing programs. For 2025, a possible decrease in interest rates in the US and other countries is predicted. Such measures create excess liquidity. Usually, the effect begins to manifest 1-3 months after central bank decisions. According to current expectations, an active influx of liquidity can be expected around December 2025.
The third factor is geopolitical and macroeconomic instability. In periods when distrust in traditional financial systems rises and sharp events occur, capital begins to seek alternative channels. During such periods, interest in gold, silver, and digital assets increases. There is already a visible decline in trust in the dollar, an increase in instability in international trade, and an escalation of conflicts. If this trend continues, pressure will increase in the fall of 2025, and demand for decentralized assets will grow.
The Fourth Wave - The Psychology of the Crowd. Most retail investors enter the market when the trend has already gained strength. This is a phase of emotional involvement and media noise. It usually occurs a few months after the actual start of growth. In previous cycles, the peak of public interest occurred closer to the end of the active growth phase. If the system accelerates again in August 2025, mass euphoria will occur in January - February 2026.
Each of these four waves has its probabilistic window: the halving works in mid-August 2025, economic liquidity activates in December 2025, geopolitical tensions shape demand around October 2025, and mass psychology kicks in by February 2026. Considering that each of these phenomena acts not instantly, but over several months before and after its peak point, we get the overlapping zone of all factors from September 2025 to March 2026. It is in this interval that we can expect synchronization of all processes creating conditions for rapid growth.
If we break it down by months, the overall trajectory looks like this. In July 2025, the first weak signs of a trend change may appear, such as an increase in volumes and interest from market participants. In August 2025, inertia kicks in after the halving, and upward movement begins. September 2025 brings an increase in the activity of institutional investors and strengthens the upward structure. October 2025 is marked by the interplay of macroeconomic and post-halving factors - during this time, the first price spike may occur. In November 2025, participants secure the trend, and additional capital enters the market. In December 2025, the system accelerates due to external liquidity. In January 2026, mass interest emerges, and cryptocurrencies are actively discussed in the media and social networks. In February 2026, the peak of emotional involvement occurs, and short-term overheating is possible. In March 2026, volatility increases.
Thus, the logic of the model shows that the expected window of sustainable growth forms from August 2025, and the highest density of factors is observed from October 2025 to March 2026. This is not a guarantee, but a calculated area of maximum probability. It is during this period that we can expect movement that, in structure, will resemble previous major cycles of the crypto market.
