$110,000: The Key Battleground of Long and Short
Every key price level of Bitcoin has become particularly important. $110,000 has become a key battleground in the current market structure, where a large number of sell orders are concentrated near this price level. The order book for Binance perpetual contracts shows that sell orders clearly outnumber buy orders, and short positions are accumulating. From a structural perspective, there is potential for explosive upward movement, but a sharp pullback could happen at any time.
A deeper analysis of market data reveals more details. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surged by 34.67%, reaching $66.9 billion, indicating a significant increase in market activity. More notably, open interest in the futures market increased by 11.18%, totaling $79.84 billion, which indicates that a large amount of capital is betting on the future trend of Bitcoin.
However, one concerning phenomenon is the participation level of retail investors.
As Bitcoin approaches its historical high, the trading volume of retail investors only accounts for 3.2% of the total. This is in stark contrast to the 30% observed in December 2024. This difference may suggest that the current rise is primarily driven by institutional funds, while retail investors are either holding off or have already exited.
The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $110,000 before the end of May is as high as 89%. The probabilities of reaching $115,000 and $125,000 by the end of May are 37% and 5%, respectively. As for the likelihood of breaking through $150,000 or $200,000, the current assessment from traders is only around 1%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards higher prices in the market.
#BTC
Every key price level of Bitcoin has become particularly important. $110,000 has become a key battleground in the current market structure, where a large number of sell orders are concentrated near this price level. The order book for Binance perpetual contracts shows that sell orders clearly outnumber buy orders, and short positions are accumulating. From a structural perspective, there is potential for explosive upward movement, but a sharp pullback could happen at any time.
A deeper analysis of market data reveals more details. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surged by 34.67%, reaching $66.9 billion, indicating a significant increase in market activity. More notably, open interest in the futures market increased by 11.18%, totaling $79.84 billion, which indicates that a large amount of capital is betting on the future trend of Bitcoin.
However, one concerning phenomenon is the participation level of retail investors.
As Bitcoin approaches its historical high, the trading volume of retail investors only accounts for 3.2% of the total. This is in stark contrast to the 30% observed in December 2024. This difference may suggest that the current rise is primarily driven by institutional funds, while retail investors are either holding off or have already exited.
The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $110,000 before the end of May is as high as 89%. The probabilities of reaching $115,000 and $125,000 by the end of May are 37% and 5%, respectively. As for the likelihood of breaking through $150,000 or $200,000, the current assessment from traders is only around 1%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards higher prices in the market.
#BTC
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