Emperorㅤ
--
“Is alt season next?” With Bitcoin at $111,000 and dominance hovering around 61%, the data suggests we may not be there just yet. Let’s break this down with facts, not feelings.
At 61% dominance, Bitcoin currently makes up over $2.18 trillion of the $3.57 trillion total crypto market cap. That leaves around $1.39 trillion for all other coins combined—over 37 million altcoins competing for it. Compare that to past alt seasons like in 2021, where BTC dominance dropped from ~70% to ~39%, freeing up over $700 billion in value that rotated into alts like ADA, SOL, and DOGE.
Right now, #ETH/BTC is still underperforming. In historical cycles, a rising ETH/BTC ratio has been a key indicator of capital rotation into altcoins. At this point, that signal hasn’t triggered convincingly. Volume-wise, most major inflows are still moving into $BTC and BTC-based ETFs. For instance, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF alone has absorbed over $37 billion since January 2024, while equivalent inflows into alt-focused products remain a fraction of that.
Additionally, during BTC’s 2021 climb, it plateaued for several weeks before dominance began to fall. Right now, BTC is still rising. If Bitcoin corrects by even 10–15% (say, from $111K down to $95K), it could cause a 30–50% pullback in alts—just as it did with coins like $MATIC, $SAND, and $AVAX in early 2022.
In short, while a dominance reversal could eventually open the door for altcoins, the current math doesn’t support a full-blown alt season. It’s not impossible—but based on historical dominance thresholds, volume shifts, and ETH/BTC lag, we’re still in Bitcoin’s phase of the cycle.
Keep watching for a drop below 50% dominance, strong ETH/BTC breakout, and broad alt volume surge.
“Until then, the data says: not yet.”
At 61% dominance, Bitcoin currently makes up over $2.18 trillion of the $3.57 trillion total crypto market cap. That leaves around $1.39 trillion for all other coins combined—over 37 million altcoins competing for it. Compare that to past alt seasons like in 2021, where BTC dominance dropped from ~70% to ~39%, freeing up over $700 billion in value that rotated into alts like ADA, SOL, and DOGE.
Right now, #ETH/BTC is still underperforming. In historical cycles, a rising ETH/BTC ratio has been a key indicator of capital rotation into altcoins. At this point, that signal hasn’t triggered convincingly. Volume-wise, most major inflows are still moving into $BTC and BTC-based ETFs. For instance, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF alone has absorbed over $37 billion since January 2024, while equivalent inflows into alt-focused products remain a fraction of that.
Additionally, during BTC’s 2021 climb, it plateaued for several weeks before dominance began to fall. Right now, BTC is still rising. If Bitcoin corrects by even 10–15% (say, from $111K down to $95K), it could cause a 30–50% pullback in alts—just as it did with coins like $MATIC, $SAND, and $AVAX in early 2022.
In short, while a dominance reversal could eventually open the door for altcoins, the current math doesn’t support a full-blown alt season. It’s not impossible—but based on historical dominance thresholds, volume shifts, and ETH/BTC lag, we’re still in Bitcoin’s phase of the cycle.
Keep watching for a drop below 50% dominance, strong ETH/BTC breakout, and broad alt volume surge.
“Until then, the data says: not yet.”
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
1
0