Acceleration or correction

The expected push from the Trump Administration favors the crypto market. In the medium and long term, experts unanimously share clearly bullish perspectives on the price of bitcoin. Miguel Caballero, CEO of Tutellus, refers to the historical series to remind us that "if we look at the historical data, we will see that bitcoin does not take more than 300 days on average to double its price." The current circumstances, he adds, "make it feasible to think of a scenario of no more than 12 months to achieve it."

In the short term, the situation presents more questions. Evidence of this is what happened a year ago following the celebration of "Bitcoin 2024." The optimism generated by the event among crypto investors, mainly due to the presence of Donald Trump, who was then in the midst of his electoral campaign, gave way to a severe correction. The price of bitcoin deflated by 20% in the ten days following the conference.

With less than a week to go before the start of "Bitcoin 2025," the largest cryptocurrency is breaking records thanks to a 9% revaluation in the last week and a 25% rally in the last month.

The continuation of the rises will depend, to a large extent, on the progress communicated by the speakers closest to the White House. Manual de Luque states in this regard that "if the government's tone is constructive and the message is clear — bitcoin as a sovereign asset, not as a threat — institutional capital may accelerate its exposure at a speed that we still underestimate today. In that case, it would not be unusual to see a parabolic phase in the second half."

Therefore, the CEO of BlockAsset Management advises that "it is wise to keep one's feet on the ground." He argues that "large conferences can also become temporary ceilings, especially if expectations run ahead of announcements." The market could even face more bearish pressures and could trigger a correction of 20-30%.