This message presents a strongly bearish view on crypto post-2025, typical of cycle-based investing strategies. Let’s break it down into what’s being claimed and whether it holds water:
🔍 Key Claims:
“I’m selling all crypto by the end of 2025.”
This implies a belief that the market top will occur in late 2025 — aligning with many models that suggest the Bitcoin halving cycle (~every 4 years) drives market tops roughly 12–18 months after each halving. The last halving was in April 2024, which makes late 2025 a reasonable theoretical peak.“Expect an 80% crash after the peak.”
Historically accurate:After 2013: ~85% BTC drawdown
After 2017: ~84% BTC drawdown
After 2021: ~77% drawdown
While past performance isn’t future proof, this scenario is plausible if speculative mania peaks again.
Indicators to watch:
Dormant Wallet Activity rises: Suggests long-term holders taking profit. This has preceded major tops in the past.
Retail FOMO surges: Common near cycle tops — late adopters often buy in euphorically.
BTC Dominance drops to ~45%: Historically, altcoins surge late in bull markets, pushing BTC dominance down.
NUPL enters “euphoria”: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric reaching the “euphoria” band has previously aligned with tops.
🧠 Critical Thinking:
Timing tops is notoriously hard — Even those who “nailed it” previously might be more lucky than precise.
Selling everything is extreme. Many successful investors take profits gradually and retain a core long-term position.
If the speaker is promoting this view on social media, beware of narratives designed to create engagement or influence sentiment for personal gain.
✅ Balanced Strategy Suggestion:
If you’re considering what to do:
Set targets: Gradually take profits based on price or time milestones.
Watch on-chain metrics like NUPL, SOPR, and dormancy flow.
Diversify: Keep some cash, traditional assets, and possibly a smaller crypto core.
Don’t let fear of missing out or fear of crashing drive emotional decisions.