Bitcoin is continuing to build on its recent price surge, setting a fresh all-time high of $112,000 on Thursday. And even though the top cryptocurrency has gained 25% in just 30 days, industry analysts see plenty of reasons why it has further to fly.
Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said BTC’s latest gains came “on the back of accelerating institutional inflows and a surge in corporate adoption.”
“The macro backdrop has added fuel to the rally—easing U.S.-China trade tensions and Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit have helped reframe BTC as a serious alternative to traditional stores of value,” they added. “Historically correlated with risk assets, Bitcoin now appears to be charting its own course as equities wobble and capital searches for safe havens.”
And ETF flows are validating the uptrend. “U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have only seen two days of outflows in May, with $1.6 billion in net inflows over the past week alone, and $4.24 billion month-to-date,” SDM wrote. “Since January, public company holdings of BTC have jumped 31% to an estimated $349 billion, now accounting for roughly 15% of total circulating supply. No surprise then that Bitcoin is up 18% year-to-date.”
Thomas Perfumo, Global Economist at Kraken, also believes we’re far from the cycle top for BTC.
“Bitcoin's new all-time high is a clear signal yet that this crypto bull market has further room to run,” he told Kitco News. “Recovering equity markets, heavyweight ETF flows and the ever-present corporate demand together create a feedback loop that is propelling Bitcoin higher.”
Perfumo pointed to three factors that support further gains for Bitcoin. First, “Global equities markets lag behind BTC but are recovering, giving investors license to extend out the risk curve as fears of geopolitical escalation – both economic and war – are easing further.”
The second factor is that BTC ETF demand has become structural. Perfumo said “net inflows picked back up about a month ago when BTC was ~$87k. The scale and persistence of these flows since has pushed BTC higher and momentum is recently increasing, with net flows reaching a record $7.3B year-to-date.”
And thirdly, the corporate bid beneath BTC is alive and well. “MicroStrategy, still the largest publicly-listed Bitcoin holder, refreshed its dry powder with a new $21 billion at-the-market equity program earlier this month,” he noted. “Newcomers like Twenty One Capital and Strive are emulating MicroStrategy's successful BTC accumulation playbook, adding fuel to the fire.”
“With equities healing, ETF inflows running back at a record pace, and a growing roster of public corporations hovering up supply, the feedback loop that carried BTC past $100k remains intact,” Perfumo said. “Unless that trifecta of tailwinds falters, dip-buyers are likely to set the tone and today's record print is evidence of that.”
And Thomas Erdösi, Head of Product at CF Benchmarks, which administers the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate, is flagging a rare setup for King Crypto based on the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVX).
“CF Bitcoin Volatility Index has edged up only from 43 → 48 over the past five days—far below the 60+ readings that accompanied the Jan 26 (59.7) and Dec 17 (61.9) tops,” Erdösi wrote in a note to Kitco News. “Futures basis stays tame: Little evidence of traders using heavy leverage to capture spot–futures spreads.”
The takeaway, he said, is that “the rally still looks measured, not euphoric—leaving room for further upside.”
Bitcoin first rose to the very edge of $112k at five minutes to midnight last night before pulling back to retest near-term support at $110,000. After a run up above $111,700 early Thursday afternoon, King Crypto finally broke through at 1:33 pm EDT.
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