Excellent analysis.

Bitcoin Is at All-Time Highs — But It Doesn’t Feel Like It

We’re currently at Bitcoin’s all-time high, yet the market sentiment doesn’t reflect that. Unlike previous ATHs marked by euphoria and hype, this one feels eerily calm—almost disconnected. There’s no retail mania, no frenzy on social media. It’s different this time.

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 72—greedy, but far from extreme. That’s why I’m calling this a Disbelief Rally. It feels like institutions are the ones driving this pump, not retail investors. If momentum continues, we could see BTC hit $120K–$130K in this phase.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic cracks are showing. There’s growing concern about sovereign debt. Japan recently failed to attract buyers for its government bonds—forcing the government to step in and buy its own debt.

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $16B in 20-year bonds, which historically has had little impact on markets. But this time was different. Demand was shockingly low. No one wants U.S. debt anymore. And quietly, the Federal Reserve had to step in and purchase $50B worth—essentially monetizing debt. This undermines confidence in the credit markets and could lead to currency devaluation.

Long-dated bond yields (20- to 40-year) are rising, signaling declining trust in the system. That’s bullish for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold. At the moment, gold looks overbought, which may explain why Bitcoin is outperforming—it’s becoming the more attractive hedge.

If this sentiment persists, Bitcoin at $500K in the coming years is not out of the question—possibly sooner than we expect.

However, a word of caution: historically, every time Bitcoin experiences a golden cross, it tends to retrace by around -10% once the rally cools down. So while the long-term outlook looks strong, short-term pullbacks are still likely.

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