Beginners make money through luck, while veterans make money through probability: Why do you win at first but end up losing everything?
In the crypto world, beginners are often under the illusion that making money right away means they have a 'unique talent.' Have they found a shortcut to financial freedom? Many people enter this market just in time for a bull market or a hot topic's explosive growth, casually buying a MEME coin or following a KOL's recommendation, and suddenly doubling their investment; becoming rich overnight seems like a dream come true.
But that is merely luck, not skill.
Veterans never rely on luck to make money; they rely on probability.
Probability refers to how many times you can win out of a hundred choices, how much you can average earn each time, and how deeply you can control losses. When making each trade, veterans do not ask, 'Can I win this time?' but rather, 'Does this trade align with my strategic framework? Does it have a long-term positive expected value?' Beginners often win without being aware of the situation, while veterans profit steadily within predictable boundaries.
The first money a beginner makes is a sweet taste of destiny, an 'invitation' from the market, but it is often a trap. Once you start to feel invincible, you will completely give it back in the second wave of market movements or sideways trading, even losing more. Because you do not know how to manage risk, how to allocate positions, or when to take profits or cut losses.
The core logic of veterans is: losses are also within expectations; systematic profitability is the real skill. They know that most people lose not because they are wrong, but because they cannot withstand a series of wrong decisions. Therefore, every decision they make is based on a probability structure of 'even if I fail, it won't be fatal.'
In the wealth game of the crypto world, it’s not about who wins quickly, but about who can afford to lose, live longer, and earn steadily.
