During this period, Bitcoin has not followed the U.S. stock market, the dollar has also weakened, and gold has risen again. Combining the situation of U.S. Treasuries yesterday and Japanese government bonds today, the overall trend from April to May is shared as follows;

1. The dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasuries experienced a significant drop at the beginning of April due to tariffs, leading Bitcoin to also reach a new low. Subsequently, the market recovered with the delay in tariffs and various negotiations. Gold prices began to rise as a safe haven.

2. With the progress of tariffs and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bonds weakened, and liquidity started to withdraw. After the withdrawal, the funds flowed into gold and Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin to rise. Because the crypto market is small and there is not much BTC supply, even a little capital can make a significant impact. Although large capital has not entered, the incoming funds are enough to push Bitcoin past its previous high.

3. The rise of Bitcoin and altcoins is now different from previous logic; capital will only invest in the leaders, and outflows will not buy altcoins. The rise of altcoins entirely depends on the project parties and the market makers. There is currently a point of contention: whether the market makers of altcoins will raise prices to unload and exit, or wait for everyone to see Bitcoin rise and then unload. While writing this article, the sudden sell-off by Sui made me feel that the market makers of altcoins are likely to unload when everyone is frantically buying in. Altcoins will rise, but it may not meet expectations.

4. Although Bitcoin has followed an independent trend for a while, looking at the longer cycle, Bitcoin is still correlated with U.S. stocks. I have mentioned multiple times that, based on the overall liquidity environment, U.S. stocks are likely to experience a pullback, with the Nasdaq potentially approaching 17,500 and the S&P 500 around 5,500. Bitcoin cannot remain unaffected.