The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the mediation of the World Bank, is one of the most enduring water-sharing agreements in the world. Despite the multiple wars and ongoing diplomatic tensions between the two nations, the treaty has remained intact. However, calls to cancel or renegotiate the treaty have grown louder in India in the wake of cross-border skirmishes and terror attacks allegedly backed by elements in Pakistan.$BTC

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While India has the technical capacity to abrogate or reinterpret the treaty, doing so would be neither straightforward nor without significant consequences. The key reason lies in the potential retaliatory power that Pakistan holds—diplomatically, legally, and geopolitically.



The Indus Waters Treaty is not merely a bilateral agreement; it is an international accord backed by the World Bank. Unilaterally canceling the treaty would not only damage India’s image as a responsible global actor but may also draw sharp international criticism and legal battles. Pakistan could take the matter to international forums such as the International Court of Justice or the United Nations, garnering diplomatic support from China, Turkey, or even sections of the Muslim world.


Strategic Retaliation and Security Concerns


More critically, Pakistan's potential for retaliation in the realm of security cannot be ignored. Escalation over water rights could trigger military posturing or proxy retaliation through non-state actors. Any provocation involving a lifeline resource like water might be perceived as a red line by Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. The threat of escalation, particularly in a nuclearized region, puts natural limits on unilateral action by either party.


Economic and Regional Stability


The IWT has enabled both countries to plan their agriculture and hydropower infrastructure reliably for decades. Disrupting this flow—especially during times of climate-induced water stress—could backfire economically for both nations, but especially for India, whose downstream agricultural economies also rely on water predictability. In the worst-case scenario, canceling the treaty could destabilize the region and give rise to new forms of conflict.


Conclusion


India's frustration with Pakistan over cross-border issues is understandable, and there may be valid arguments for re-examining aspects of the treaty. However, outright cancellation is a high-stakes gamble. Pakistan’s ability to retaliate—through international forums, military posturing, and potential escalation—serves as a strong deterrent. In a region already fraught with historical grievances and volatile borders, diplomacy, not provocation, remains the more prudent path forward,

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