Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin in growth, leading to a strong increase in the ETH/BTC trading pair. This rise has sparked hopes for an upcoming altseason.
However, a more detailed analysis of historical data suggests that these expectations may be premature.
The breakout that instilled hope
The ETH/BTC pair has recorded its first breakout since December 2024. For the first time in five months, the pair showed a higher low, which is generally considered a bullish signal. This breakout is significant, marking a 34% increase in just one week.
Such an increase has not been seen in almost three years. The last comparable increase occurred in July 2022 when the ETH/BTC pair rose 56% in a month and a half. Despite this encouraging price action, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can be sustained and trigger a broad altcoin rally.
The rapid growth of Ethereum in 2022 offers insight into the current situation. At that time, the price of Ethereum skyrocketed 121% in just over a month, rising from approximately $1,800 to nearly $4,000. This impressive rally also managed to trigger a broader altseason.
Historical data shows that after the bull market of July 2022, the market confirmed an altseason in August 2022. The critical condition was met: 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies managed to outperform Bitcoin in the last 90 days, with the Altcoin Season Index rising to 96.
However, at this moment, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 18, according to BlockchainCenter, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates.
Additionally, only 18% of the top 50 altcoins currently outperform Bitcoin. These metrics highlight that, despite the recent breakout of ETH/BTC, the likelihood of a full altseason remains low in the short term but is not completely ruled out.
