Huma @humafinance146 is preparing to launch a community round on Jupiter and has also announced some tokenomics. Today, let's do some simple calculations and discuss our views.
Disclaimer: I personally participate in the pool staking activities, so I have a vested interest. Some content may reflect personal subjective views and may not be accurate; please DYOR.
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TL;DR
➣ The community round has a high cost-performance ratio and is open for participation. Note there is a 3-month lock-up period.
➣ A valuation below 300 million USD has a higher cost-performance ratio.
➣ A valuation of 400-500 million USD is my personal expectation for a short-term peak.
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➣ 1% of Huma's total token supply will be allocated to JUP stakers at a valuation of 75 million USD.
The total token supply is 10 billion tokens, meaning the community round financing is 750,000 USD, with each token priced at 0.0075u.
➣ The community round has a significant discount compared to Huma's A round valuation.
I personally believe the discount is around 50% - 75%, corresponding to a token price between 0.01 - 0.015, which means the A round valuation is in the range of 100 million - 150 million.
Additionally, this indicates that the community round's valuation is higher than the seed round's. Based on the project's fundamentals, I believe the seed round valuation is around 50 million - 60 million USD, corresponding to a token price of 0.005 - 0.006u.
➣ Meets Binance's spot listing standards, and it can largely be listed.
RWA and PayFi narrative, truly has cash flow business in the toB projects. Given Huma's partnership resources (Solana Foundation, Jupiter, etc.), there's no need to follow the Alpha low-opening route; a normal TGE will suffice.
However, the CEX listing standards mainly revolve around trading volume and user acquisition, which requires consideration of whether Huma can bring enough B-end or C-end users to CEX.
➣ Expected opening valuation is 300 million USD, meaning each token price is 0.02u.
Here, I think the ideal arrangement of valuations and token prices should be:
- Seed round: 50 million USD, 0.005u.
- A round: 150 million USD, 0.015u.
- Community round: 75 million USD, 0.0075u.
The main reason is that they are integer multiples, making calculations easier. Coupled with Huma's project positioning and the previously mentioned partnership advantages, it has bargaining chips; therefore, according to the logic of a normal opening, it generally will be valued at twice the last round of financing during TGE.
Thus, the cost-performance ratio of the community round is quite good. Moreover, if TGE occurs in late May or June, considering the 3-month lock-up period, by the time tokens are received, market liquidity will be starting to become ample.
400-500 million USD is my personal expectation for the short-term peak after opening.
➣ First-day circulation: 18%; initial airdrop: 5%, ecosystem allocation 38%, distributed through months of airdrops.
An 18% circulation is quite high; however, 5% of this should be for liquidity, plus a portion for community shares. The actual market circulation is likely below 10%.
You can participate in Kaito's Yap incentives, but based on previous feedback, the major players will likely provide real monetary support to the community. But a pig's foot rice is also money.
➣ CEX listing: planned for the second quarter.
Expected TGE in late May or June; during this time, there might be one more pool opened. However, if you rush in at that point, the cost-performance ratio won't be high (big players, I won't say more).
➣ Staking rewards and PST tokens.
This part is to alleviate selling pressure; the staking lock-up period of 3 months aligns perfectly with the community round unlocking timeline. That is, stakers can obtain more LP rewards (token unlocking, higher turnover) 3 months after TGE.
It depends on everyone's trading preferences: whether you prefer a steady stream or quick in-and-out.
