Note a problem: although from the exchange's data, the BTC price has reached a new high, the BTC inventory in the exchange is decreasing, and the short-term selling pressure is not very obvious for now. However, there is a phenomenon here, called distribution.
The liquidity data of BTC held for more than a year is relatively reliable, and historically it has rarely failed. Every time BTC price skyrockets, the BTC held for the long term usually decreases quickly. Current data also shows that the long-term held BTC is still in the distribution phase, especially when there are no macroeconomic headwinds; this trend is very obvious. However, this does not mean that the price will stop here or has reached its peak. Currently, this value has not reached an extreme level, and further observation is needed. The closer it gets to an extreme value (using the previous distribution cycle as a reference), the more we should start to warn about market conditions, which means there is a possibility of a temporary peak. For now, there is no rush.
In short, be cautious when chasing high prices. Especially last night, why did it suddenly crash? The results of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction yesterday were significantly lower than market expectations! What does this indicate? The market demand for U.S. Treasuries is very poor. To attract buyers, the U.S. had to raise interest rates, leading to a surge in Treasury yields. The 20-year Treasury yield has reached 5.1%, a new high since November 2023, which immediately triggered a brief drop in U.S. stocks!
