On May 21, Texas Bitcoin Reserve Bill SB21 passed the House in the third reading and is awaiting the governor's signature. If successfully signed, it will bring billions in purchasing power and long-term strategic impact to $BTC .
My judgment on the follow-up to this bill is that the probability of passing is as high as 90%.
About the ticket type:
Senate third reading vote 25:5, passed with high support.
House third reading vote 101:42, passed with high support.
About the governor: The governor is a Republican and crypto-friendly.
Governor Greg Abbott is a Republican who has served as governor since 2015 and has been re-elected multiple times. He stated that Texas should become a 'leader in cryptocurrency'; he has supported several bills related to cryptocurrency and blockchain, such as the bill passed in 2021 that recognized the legal status of cryptocurrency and promoted the development of blockchain technology. Texas has now become an important hub for Bitcoin mining and blockchain companies, partly due to Abbott's government policies, such as low taxes and a relaxed regulatory environment.
What will be the market impact if it passes?
Texas is the second-largest economy in the United States (with a 2024 GDP of about $2.4 trillion), and whether in purchasing power or influence, it will have a greater benchmark effect after passing.
Comparison with New Hampshire SBR
After SB21 passes, it will introduce greater purchasing power.
New Hampshire HB302 allows up to 5% of state public funds (including the general fund, revenue stabilization fund, etc.) to be invested in precious metals and eligible digital assets (currently only Bitcoin). According to 2024 data, the total scale of public funds in the state (including the general fund and other authorized funds) is about $9 billion. The investment cap is about $450 million.
The latest version of Texas SB21 does not set a clear investment ratio limit and will determine the scale of funding through Legislative Appropriations. Texas's general fund size for 2024 is about $120 billion, and if 1% is invested, it will be $1.2 billion.
