$BTC Trend Analysis

The market has been hitting new highs, so why aren't we making money? This round of market movement is still a local bull market for Bitcoin, which continues to reach new highs, while Ethereum and various altcoins remain at low levels. The fundamental reason lies in the choices of the main funds, with Bitcoin seeing continuous inflows, while altcoins are experiencing continuous outflows, especially with significant outflows from Ethereum. In recent times, there have been persistent double explosions of long and short positions, leaving retail investors in distress, ultimately being treated as liquidity harvesting.

After Bitcoin broke through yesterday, it experienced a sharp decline, giving the impression of a false breakout. However, similar to previous instances, it eventually recovered, indicating the determination of the main market makers and hinting at some characteristics of a bull market. Bull markets often experience sharp declines, and sudden drops present buying opportunities. But with Bitcoin at 110,000, where is the target? Which level, 120,000 or 100,000, is more likely to be reached? It's hard to decide.

From a mid-term trend perspective, the moving averages are performing well. Disregarding subjective views and not going long against the trend, there is a viewpoint that after breaking historical highs, one should not short. Under normal circumstances, there should be at least a 3,000-point profit after breaking historical highs. Currently, there is no reason to short Bitcoin, and after exiting the bearish structure, one should respect the market and follow it.

Regarding future expectations, one should refrain from calling a top until a peak is observed. How high can it go is dependent on how far liquidity can support it. Additionally, after Bitcoin breaks historical highs, the risk-reward ratio for it becomes relatively low, so it may be worthwhile to consider positioning in Ethereum and altcoins, focusing on opportunities for catch-up. For Ethereum, pay special attention to the previous resistance at 2,600. If it breaks through and remains above, there is potential for catch-up. The target for $ETH is 2,800 to 3,000.

Operational strategy: Stabilize above 2,600 on the 4-hour level and position for long Ethereum. For Bitcoin above 110,000, consider not shorting until a bearish structure appears.