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$BTC Price Responds

Bitcoin’s price action is responding in real time. $BTC rose to $107,322 at press time, less than 4% shy of its halving-cycle high. None of this proves that Bitcoin is destined to replace sovereign debt, but the directional shift in marginal flows is no longer hypothetical. When the second-largest bond market on earth shows two consecutive bidless sessions and its prime minister compares the country to Greece, capital chases the assets whose supply cannot be printed. Bitcoin, engineered for hard-cap scarcity, slots neatly into that vacuum.

Whether this is the moment sovereign debt loses the mantle of “risk-free” remains to be seen. What is indisputable is that the implosion of Japan’s ultra-long JGBs has handed Bitcoin its clearest macro tail-wind since 2020’s pandemic-era liquidity flood—except this time the narrative is not emergency stimulus but the dawning realization that even advanced nations are running out of balance-sheet room. For a growing cohort of investors, the word bond is beginning to rhyme less with safety and more with risk, while $BTC is rhyming—loudly—with insurance.