1) Texas has passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, waiting for the governor's signature.

2) Israel and Iran are in a serious conflict, which is negative.

3) The global bond market is interconnected; recently, bonds in Japan, the UK, and the Netherlands have shown signs of weakness due to their respective issues;

Currently, there are no solutions to the above problems, so the bond market will continue to be under pressure, with the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeding 4.6%, likely to continue rising, affecting the sentiment of risk assets, leading to a triple kill in US stocks, bonds, and currency; there are also some bond auctions for maturities within 7 years this month, and there will be 20 and 30-year bond auctions in mid-June, which are likely to be very unfavorable.

What does the above information mean?

When global bond yields rise significantly, borrowing costs will increase, which is not a good thing; from a long-term perspective, it is a risk, and I estimate it will explode under the condition of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates or another piece of news triggering it directly.

US stocks have already felt the pressure, closing down 1.91% last night, but BTC rose against the trend, mainly due to a conflict between James the bull and Insider Guy. The sentiment has risen directly, with James increasing his long position to 1.1 billion USD, and BlackRock also bought 537 million USD of BTC last night. It belongs to BTC's personal solo performance.

Currently, if BTC stabilizes at 110,000 USD, there will be a rebound; if it does not stabilize, altcoins will drop even more severely since they are all dependent on BTC.

There is no trend that always rises, nor one that always falls; once the short positions are eaten up, the long positions will quickly be consumed as well.

Today's market situation: from a sentiment perspective,

The main support for BTC is around 106,000; if it breaks below, it will definitely head straight for the long position at 104,000.

BTC will go to around 114,000 today to liquidate the short positions before starting to decline.