This is not a normal market correction, but a crisis of trust. On the evening of May 21, a seemingly technical 20-year US Treasury bond auction triggered a 'triple dive' across foreign exchange, bond, and stock markets.
The dollar has fallen for the third consecutive day;
US stocks experienced the largest single-day drop in nearly a month;
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged above 4.6%, triggering a chain sell-off.
And the 'straw' that broke the market's back was the 20-year government bond auction with a winning bid interest rate as high as **5.047%**. This result directly refreshed the psychological limit since 2024 and marked the second time in US bond auction history that the 5% red line was breached, completely shattering the illusion that 'US Treasury bonds are risk-free assets.'
One, the real signal of the auction failure: global capital is 'selling America'
This auction result not only represents a sharp decline in demand for government bonds but is also a statement of global capital structurally fleeing from 'American credit.'
What does the surge in the winning bid interest rate mean? It means that to attract buyers, the US Treasury has to 'pay higher interest'—behind this is the enormous doubt of global investors about the US financial situation:
Moody's just downgraded the US credit rating;
The fiscal path and trade route of the Trump administration upon returning to the White House remain unclear;
In addition, the total amount of US debt continues to expand, and the ability to repay is facing unprecedented challenges.
What is even more concerning is that this 'sell-off of America' rhythm is not just a short-term capital flight, but a structural acceleration signal of 'de-dollarization.'
Mlion.ai platform's macro risk heat map turned red for the US Treasury market within an hour after the auction results were announced, while US stocks and dollar liquidity indicators fell simultaneously, indicating that capital is fleeing all three core assets.
Two, the technical critical point is approaching: a 5% yield is the critical collapse of the 'financial ballast'
Currently, the market's most sensitive focus has shifted to the 10-year US Treasury bond:
4.6% has been breached;
If approaching the 4.75%-4.80% range, it will trigger a larger wave of sell-offs;
A 5% yield has become the 'ultimate betting target' in the futures market.
From a trading logic perspective, this is not just an issue with bonds themselves, but a trigger point for a series of derivative markets (futures, derivatives hedging, leveraged ETFs) structural liquidation. Mlion.ai's quantitative trigger model shows that in the area above 4.75%, there are dense stop-loss thresholds for a lot of 'basis arbitrage' and 'duration hedging positions.'
This means that once the market falls below the technical support level, liquidity will quickly dry up, triggering a chain reaction—by then, not only US Treasuries but also US stocks, the dollar, and even the commodity market may experience violent fluctuations simultaneously.
Three, gold surges, and the logic of risk aversion reverses: the dollar is no longer safe
What does it mean when gold breaks through $3,300/ounce, while at the same time the dollar index has fallen for three consecutive days?
This means that the market has entered a non-traditional risk aversion cycle: investors are not only 'leaving risk assets' but also 'leaving the dollar itself.'
The traditional logic is 'the dollar strengthens, gold is under pressure,' but currently it is a 'dual strong pattern reversal'—this reflects skepticism about the pricing power of the entire US financial system.
Mlion.ai's on-chain bulk transaction monitoring system also pointed out that on the evening of May 21, the on-chain trading volume related to gold surged, with some stablecoins flowing into gold-related token asset pools, indicating that some funds are attempting to establish gold-type asset hedging positions.
Four, this is not volatility, but a crack in trust
The real logic behind this 'financial triple kill' is the overall descent of US asset credit:
Bonds are not being bought, and higher interest must be paid;
US stocks are unstable at high levels, with accumulated valuation pressure;
The purchasing power of the dollar is disturbed by policy, and the reserve position is loosening;
Regulatory prospects, fiscal deficits, and political games are simultaneously entering an uncertain zone.
This does not mean 'collapse', but it marks a reshuffling of global financial consensus. Mlion.ai's international market trend simulation tool predicts that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond stabilizes above 4.8% in the next two weeks, global institutions will be forced to adjust their fixed income asset allocation ratios, turning to gold, crypto assets, or non-US markets.
Five, cryptocurrency market: the next round of risk aversion allocation lowland?
It is precisely in this 'pricing power crisis' of traditional assets that Bitcoin has reached $110,000, setting a new historical high.
This is not a coincidence, but the result of logical evolution—when the dollar is no longer the only anchor, decentralized, anti-inflation, and strong cross-border settlement capabilities of Bitcoin and Ethereum are being re-examined.
Currently, Mlion.ai's cryptocurrency price trend prediction model has captured that the main funds are laying out an increasing trend for BTC and ETH, while the asset transfer mediated by stablecoins is significantly accelerating, and crypto assets are becoming one of the points of 'de-dollarization.'
Conclusion: The market is not crushed by numbers, but by the withdrawal of confidence.
This chain collapse triggered by a government bond auction is not a financial technology failure, but a true reflection of systemic confidence loosening.
When the market no longer buys US credit, when government bonds need to pay a 'interest bonus' of 5% to have someone take them, and when capital is simultaneously fleeing the dollar, bonds, and US stocks, global investors must ask a new question:
Are the assets in your hand really safe?
What we can do is to proactively find a strategic path that can traverse uncertain cycles through Mlion.ai's AI macro research reports, risk sentiment tracking, and on-chain data warning systems.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
