Ethereum right now is like a fitness coach, frantically doing burpees around the $2500 mark, panting and gathering strength, while eyeing the $4000 ceiling, just waiting for an explosive opportunity to leap up like a carp!
1. Let's break down the technicals
The price of $2644 is sandwiched between the 7-day moving average and the 30-day moving average, equivalent to two slices of bread squeezing a meat patty in the middle. It's bouncing up and down in the short term but can't escape this burger combo. The Bollinger Bands are yawning: the upper band at $1993 looks like a pressure cooker lid, and the lower band at $1863 resembles a leaking valve, with the price swaying around the middle band at $2123, indicating that the main force is holding back a big move, ready to either lift the lid or blow the valve at any moment.
2. News is fueling the engine
The Pectra upgrade is set to launch in August, equivalent to giving Ethereum's engine a turbocharger. On-chain monitoring shows that 268,000 ETH have been pre-staked, and this smart money is waiting for the upgrade to cash out. BlackRock has secretly increased its holdings: the BUIDL fund bought another 32,000 ETH this week, and institutions are as aggressive in buying coins as grandmas are in snatching discounted eggs in supermarkets.
3. Today's operational traffic light
Blindly charging section:
If it retraces to $2500 without breaking, directly place a long order with a stop-loss at $2450, targeting the first level at $2700. If there’s a massive breakout above $2700, don’t hesitate to chase the trend; such a breakout could rise at least $300, and you can consider getting off once you see $3000.
Hands-off warning:
Don’t open positions in the "death zone" between $2550-$2600; this area is stacked with 24,000 ETH short positions, equivalent to a multi-car pile-up on the highway, where newcomers will definitely get scratched.
Quick exit signal:
If it falls below $2450, quickly liquidate your position; the lower level at $2300 is the liquidation red line for institutions, breaking it would trigger a waterfall market. Keep an eye on the funding rate; if it spikes from 0.008% to over 0.03%, it indicates that leveraged traders are starting to self-destruct, so follow the big players and retreat.
4. Brainstorming predictions
Violent pump script: After the U.S. institutions start work tonight, a four-hour bullish candle could directly pierce through $2700, launching a surprise attack to $3000 while Asian retail investors are asleep over the weekend.
Sneaky wash script: During the day, it could oscillate around $2500-$2600 multiple times, cleaning out the long positions' margins before pumping it up, playing a psychological game.
Follow me to catch opportunities
Intraday: BTC ETH
