In summary, the alt season only occurs when BTC undergoes a correction and that capital flows into altcoins.
The example correction level from the peak of 109,860 currently:
- a drop of 20%-30% (87,800-76,900): high probability, little panic, alt season begins from July to September 2025
- a drop of 38% like previous cycles (67,900): stronger alt season, but panic risk, from October to December 2025
- a drop of 50% (54,900-55,000): high panic risk, alt season may be delayed until 2026