In this rally, everything will depend on the risk appetite of STH holders and speculators in ETFs.
The current reading of the STH MVRV has not yet reached the "green" line of one standard deviation (+1 STDV). Any value above this can be considered a "super rally" – until the STH holders decide to exit their positions.
In the three previous rallies of this bull cycle, the price increased, on average, about 46% above the +1 STDV level, which in the current context corresponds to approximately $154,000. However, as the market is in the final stage of the bull phase and risk appetite is contained, I expect sales to begin around $126,000, driven by speculators who bought at $84,000.
It is important to note that while STH may still be willing to keep prices high, ETF speculators are likely to start selling, which is likely to serve as a trigger for a correction.
