Note: The following content is discussed based on K-line charts. The technical analysis is almost unanimous across the network, but my personal viewpoint remains what we discussed during our live chat, so the following analysis is just to provide additional reference.
1. Technical Analysis
- Bearish Signal: Daily MACD forms a death cross with a top divergence, four-hour candlestick breaks below $2500 support. If it further loses the $2400 level, it may trigger a chain liquidation, with a short-term target around $2330.
- Bullish Formation: Some analysts point out that the daily chart forms a "bullish flag". If it breaks the $2600 resistance, it may target around $2800; a "golden cross" appears between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, enhancing breakout momentum.
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2. On-chain Data and Institutional Movements
1. Supply Tightening:
- In the past 30 days, over 1 million ETH have been transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, exchange reserves have hit a nearly ten-year low, spot liquidity is depleted, which may lead to supply-demand imbalance and drive prices up in the long term.
- Whale addresses (holding over 100,000 ETH) continue to increase their holdings. BlackRock recently purchased $45 million worth of ETH, signaling significant institutional capital inflow.
2. Market Sentiment:
- The Fear and Greed Index is at 71 (Greed), but the contract open interest has reached a historical peak of $32.2 billion. The balance of long and short positions requires caution against volatility risks under high leverage.
- The MVRV ratio has entered a bullish range, with 60% of addresses in profit, reflecting a rebound in investor confidence.
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3. Key Events and Macroeconomic Impact
- Federal Reserve Policy: The meeting minutes will be released on May 22. If it signals a possibility of interest rate cuts (expected probability 45%), it may boost risk assets, including ETH.
- Technical Upgrade: Ethereum network plans a small-scale upgrade on May 25 to enhance performance and security, which may serve as a short-term catalyst.
- Derivative Expiry: Futures and options contracts expire on May 23-24, which may amplify price volatility.
4. Operational Suggestions and Risk Alerts
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $2400 (intersection of EMA15 and EMA90), $2350-$2380 (short-term testing range).
- Resistance: $2620 (key psychological level), $2800 (may accelerate upward after breaking through).