Excelente apreciación. A veces pasa también con las oportunidades de inversión. Vemos el éxito fácilmente cuando ya está realizado,pero nos cuesta trabajo ver el trabajo detrás.
TRADE 990
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Bullish
In World War II, the British noticed something puzzling: Most of the planes sent to the German front were shot down, and few returned... but even those that returned were heavily laden with bullets and injuries!
Air Force engineers decided to take action. They said: Let's protect the planes with armor! But the problem was that covering the entire plane with iron armor would make it too heavy and unsuitable for maneuvering. They thought logically: The planes that returned were hit in the wings and midsection. So, these areas need reinforcement!
They implemented the plan... but! Nothing changed. The planes were still crashing. The losses remained the same!
And here came a man who changed everything... "Abraham Wald" – a mathematician He told them: "You only looked at the planes that returned... but what about those that didn't?
The bullets that hit the wings and body didn't bring the plane down... But those that were hit in the cockpit or engines never returned at all!" The areas you don't see are the most dangerous... because they don't give you the chance to see them at all!
And indeed... when the cockpit and engine areas were reinforced, the survival rate increased significantly, and this story became the cornerstone of a global golden concept in data science and statistics: "Survivorship Bias" When we judge matters solely based on who ascended or who descended, without considering who disappeared or fell along the way.
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