Crypto Market Volatility Notes: A Veteran Trader's Survival Notes for June

Recently, I've often been asked by peers: Is it time to go All in? Watching the price oscillate around $100,000, I brewed a cup of strong tea and pulled out my notebook filled with delivery slips from three years ago—history is always strikingly similar, but this time, we are facing a more complex battlefield.

I. Current Market Situation: Dancing on the Edge of a Knife

This week, while watching the four-hour K-line of BTC, I keep recalling the "trumpet-shaped" volatility from the end of the 2021 bull market. The current price is trapped in the range of $101,000 to $106,000, as if an invisible hand is gripping its throat. The daily support range of $96,000 to $98,000 is like soldiers in a trench, every step back could trigger an avalanche. Last week, a client added to their position at $98,000 and got stuck, only to witness the weekly gap at $90,000 getting breached the next day—that feeling is like stepping into thin air at the edge of a cliff.

A special reminder for new friends: the profit-taking on ETH priced between $2100-$2500 on-chain is three times the trapped inventory from the 2022 bear market. Recently, I've frequently seen whale addresses suddenly transferring out 5000 ETH at 2 AM; such actions are certainly not coincidental—just like ants queuing up to evacuate before a typhoon.

II. June Life-and-Death Game: Experiences from Three Major Battles

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Night: A Midnight with Accelerated Heartbeat

I remember on June 12 last year, I was glued to the computer watching Powell's speech, and Bitcoin surged from $30,000 to $40,000 in just 72 hours. This year, at the same time, there's an added layer of unease: If the dot plot indicates that interest rate cuts have been postponed to 2025, those who leveraged high to go long might not even have time to add margin before being forcibly liquidated. Recently, I've seen someone in the community showing off their positions, with leverage up to 5x and still daring to go all in; this kind of operation sends chills down my spine—I've seen too many people get liquidated from that crash in March 2023.

2. The Life and Death of the Ethereum ETF

This week, I repeatedly simulated the SEC approval script with colleagues from the compliance department: If staking functionality is approved on June 12, ETH could directly surge to $2500; but if the application is rejected... Arbitrage funds have already started to withdraw last week. More subtly, Binance suddenly tripled the withdrawal fee for BNB; the intention behind this action is worth pondering—regulatory arbitrage rules are being rewritten.

3. The Art of Harvesting by Whales

Looking at on-chain data, 28,000 ETH are flowing from exchanges to cold wallets, which reminds me of the mass exodus in May 2021. At that time, whales began to transfer assets after the price broke $60,000, and then the market faced a 40% correction. How similar is the current situation? What's more troublesome is that the reserve of exchanges has reached a historical high of 540,000 BTC, which is like a reservoir filled with water but cannot find a flood outlet—any minor disturbance could trigger a breach.

III. My June Combat Manual

Defensive Section: The Philosophy of Cash is King for Survival

Position Red Line: Currently, spot positions should never exceed 50%, and the cash reserved is not meant for bottom fishing, but rather to pick up bloodied chips. Just like in November 2022, when I accumulated BTC at $16,000, it tripled six months later.

Stop Loss Iron Rule: Strictly execute 2x leverage on contract accounts, with stop losses set 1.5% below the support line. Last month, a newcomer chased the price at $105,000 without setting a stop loss, and got stuck at $93,000; this kind of lesson makes me shake my head.

Cash Arsenal: Convert 20% of funds into USDC financial products, an annualized 10% may not seem much, but it can be a lifesaver during a crash. When both stocks and bonds were slaughtered last year, it was this money that allowed me to buy ETH at $18,000.

Offensive Section: Event-Driven Guerrilla Warfare

June 12 Sniper Battle: I set three alarms for 3 AM that day: SEC announcement, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, ETH breaking $1920. If all three conditions are met, I was ready to chase the price with 10% of my position—but a trailing stop loss of 8% must be set.

Quarterly Options Game: On June 18, $1 billion worth of BTC options will expire, a time that often accompanies extreme volatility. Last year around this time, I earned a 23% monthly return by selling put options, and this year I plan to use the same strategy.

IV. Heartfelt Words for Ordinary Investors

Recently, I've often received messages from newcomers: "Teacher, can I still get in now?" My answer is always: Making money in a bull market relies on courage, while earning coins in a bear market relies on patience. If you are risk-averse, I suggest using my "Sandwich Strategy": 60% core assets (BTC dollar-cost averaging + ETH spot) + 20% defensive financial products + 20% mobile units. Remember, never hand over bloodied chips in panic.

Yesterday an old client asked me: Is it time to go All in? I pointed to the VIX Panic Index on my computer screen and said: "Look, this value has exceeded 40, what you should do now is fasten your seatbelt, not unbuckle it." Investing has never been a sprint, but a marathon. When everyone is talking about Bitcoin, perhaps it is time for us to take a step back and think.