Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $106,340 as of May 21, 2025, just 2.5% below its all-time high of $109,114. While recent price action has shown hesitation near a key resistance, on-chain indicators point to a resilient market structure, with the realized price metric suggesting that long-term holders remain in profit and that a broader recovery phase could be underway.

The Realized Price Reveals Profitable Conditions for 2025 Investors

The realized price—a blockchain-based metric that represents the average price at which BTC last moved—stands at $93,266 for the 2025 investor cohort. With Bitcoin currently trading at $106,340, these investors have an average unrealized profit of approximately 14%, reinforcing the narrative of renewed profitability across the market.

Unlike the all-time highs that grab headlines, the realized price provides deeper insight into investor sentiment and cost basis, making it one of the most effective tools for identifying market health and potential turning points.

Historical Context: Capitulation and Rebound Patterns

Throughout Bitcoin's history, dips below the realized price have often marked capitulation phases and cyclical market lows:

January 2024: Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC briefly fell below its realized cost basis before rebounding.

August 2024: A sharp correction during the yen carry trade unwind led Bitcoin to $49,000, once again pushing prices below the realized value and triggering a capitulation event.

Most recently, BTC reclaimed its realized price level of 2025 on April 22, indicating that the worst of the selling pressure may be behind, signaling the start of a more constructive market phase.

Realized Capitalization Reaches an All-Time High

Another important metric, realized capitalization—which measures the aggregate value of all BTC based on their last on-chain movement—has risen to a record $906 billion, according to CryptoSlate. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly high, reflecting sustained investor confidence and increasing capital commitment to the Bitcoin network, even as the price stays near record levels.

Beyond the All-Time Highs: Why Realized Price Matters More

When Bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 in 2017, the realized price lagged far behind at $5,149, revealing a speculative mania. Similarly, in 2021, BTC reached $69,000 while the realized price was well below. In contrast, the 2018 bear market low of $3,200 saw the market price of BTC converge with the realized price, illustrating the role of the indicator as a reliable support level during downturns.

As the realized price continues to rise through cycles, it reflects the maturing investor base, increasing network value, and deep capital flows. Therefore, comparing only cycle peaks—$69,000 in 2021 versus over $100,000 in 2025—misses the broader trend of market development and foundation building.

Foundations Strengthen as Bitcoin Seeks Liftoff

With BTC comfortably trading above its realized price and most new investors now in profit, the market appears structurally healthy. While the price remains just below all-time highs, the combination of strong realized price support, rising realized capitalization, and declining capitulation risk points to the possibility of sustained upward momentum in the short term.

As analysts shift focus from speculative peaks to the fundamentals of the cost basis, the realized price continues to serve as a benchmark for assessing the long-term strength of the market.$BTC