In a new technical analysis, cryptocurrency analyst Egrag Crypto shared an in-depth analysis of XRP's price behavior by using the Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average as primary tools to identify trends.

Through a series of annotated charts, Egrag outlines the historical significance of the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 33-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as key indicators to identify both the peaks of a bull market and the onset of major downturns.

Bearish Crosses: Historical signals of market downturns

Egrag's analysis focuses on the relative positions and intersections of these moving averages. According to his post, whenever the EMA 21 crosses below the SMA 33 on the weekly chart—a formation he calls a 'bearish crossover'—historically, it coincides with the beginning of a prolonged downtrend in XRP's market cycle.

He identifies two major instances in the past when this occurred: the first time was in May 2018 and again in November 2021. In both cases, XRP experienced significant losses after the crossover, with respective declines of approximately 87% and 72%.

Egrag calculates the average of the two declines to forecast what a future bearish crossover could imply. Applying an average decline of 79.5%, he estimates the potential drop if such a signal were to appear again. He warns that while there may be short-term optimism among market participants, a bearish crossover should be viewed as a significant trend reversal.

Bullish Crosses: A springboard for significant price increases

Conversely, Egrag emphasizes the positive implications of the opposite signal—a bullish crossover—when the EMA 21 moves above the SMA 33. His historical assessment identifies four major instances when such bullish crossovers preceded significant price increases. In each of those events, XRP experienced a substantial rally, including a 1600% increase, which he uses as a reference for his current outlook.

Based on the current chart structure and recent performance of XRP around the EMA/SMA level, Egrag speculates that a similar rally may be imminent. He predicts that the price could potentially rise to $27, citing the historical 1600% move as a precedent. His chart illustrates extended targets, including speculative price levels up to $37, representing a 6500% increase from the current level. Average forecasts include $5.712 and $9.575, aligning with past market reactions and Fibonacci-based resistance areas.

Important support and time frame identified

This analysis also includes a clearly defined threshold at $1.6394, highlighted in red across all images, which may act as a support level or invalidation point depending on price action in the coming weeks.

The timing of this analysis is further emphasized by a vertical marker on the chart indicating September 29, 2025, seemingly marked as an important date in the future. However, no clear reason is provided in the tweet regarding its significance.

In summary, Egrag Crypto acknowledges that the market is unpredictable but still maintains the view that these technical signals remain highly relevant. His message to XRP holders is to be cautious, encouraging them to be wary of moving averages rather than speculating based on emotions.