Amid the waves of the crypto market, opportunities and risks coexist. Recently, the crypto market's performance has attracted attention, with Bitcoin's price approaching the $110,000 mark, drawing the interest and discussion of countless investors. However, beneath this seemingly prosperous facade, there are indeed undercurrents. Based on a comprehensive analysis of current international policies, macroeconomics, fundamentals, and on-chain data, the following is an in-depth analysis of potential risk points and black swan event warnings that may affect the crypto market.
1. International Policy Risks
U.S. Policy Trends
The Trump administration recently announced ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This news acted like a stone thrown into the lake of the crypto market, creating ripples and driving Bitcoin trading volume to surge by 67%. However, a series of Trump's policies, such as the tax cut and crypto strategic reserve plans, still require congressional approval, with many details unclear. Should there be any changes, it could likely trigger a market correction.
Additionally, there are differences in state-level legislation for crypto assets in the U.S., such as New Hampshire's Bitcoin reserve bill. Progress at the federal level (Financial Innovation and Technology Act) is slow, and disputes between the SEC and CFTC regarding regulatory classifications may exacerbate market volatility, making it difficult for investors to navigate.
Global Regulatory Coordination Pressure: The EU's MiCA framework imposes strict requirements on stablecoins and trading transparency, which may suppress market liquidity and impact the crypto market.
2. Macroeconomic Conditions and Market Sentiment
Liquidity Risks: China’s 'double lowering' policy released 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, boosting risk assets. However, if economic recovery falls short of expectations, capital may flow back to traditional markets, putting pressure on the crypto market and potentially shrinking investor wealth.
The Federal Reserve's policy shift is also crucial. If U.S. inflation rebounds or employment data exceeds expectations, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar, which would suppress risk assets like Bitcoin, significantly reducing investor returns.
Market Overheating and High Leverage: With Bitcoin's price nearing $100,000, on-chain data indicates that current leverage levels are close to the peak of the 2021 bull market, with short positions highly concentrated in the $987 - $995 region. Short-term volatility may spike, and the market could experience substantial fluctuations at any time.
Retail FOMO sentiment is significant. The Ethereum crash on May 19 (falling to a low of 2323) resembles the '519' event of 2021, indicating that the market remains fragile. Investors must be wary of large holders selling off, which could lead to a sell-off and leave investors with significant losses.
3. On-chain Data and Fundamental Alerts
On-chain Activity Divergence: Bitcoin active addresses have increased by 8%, but long-term holders are loosening their positions, with new inflow costs high. The market structure is shifting towards 'incremental user dominance,' raising short-term selling pressure risks, which threatens investor capital safety.
Ethereum's gas fees have decreased, but the crash on May 19 shows its price sensitivity is higher than that of Bitcoin. Investors should monitor large holdings, as any movement could trigger market fluctuations.
Security Vulnerabilities and Exchange Risks:
Following the $1.5 billion ETH theft at Bybit exchange in February 2025, market trust in centralized exchanges remains doubtful. A withdrawal surge or liquidity crisis may recur, making investor asset safety difficult to guarantee.
Decentralized exchanges like XBIT have strengthened security mechanisms, but vulnerabilities in cross-chain protocols may still be exploited, leading to unexpected losses for investors.
4. Potential Black Swan Events
Geopolitical Sudden Changes: If the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations collapse or if the U.S.-China trade agreement does not include digital asset provisions, it could reverse current optimistic sentiments and plunge the crypto market into a downturn.
Regulatory Black Swans: If the U.S. Congress vetoes the crypto strategic reserve plan or if the EU suddenly tightens stablecoin regulations, it could lead to a sharp drop in market liquidity, and investors may face difficulties in capital turnover.
Technical Collapse: If Bitcoin surpasses $105,000 but fails to hold, it may trigger algorithmic trading and large holders cashing out, resulting in a weekly-level correction with a target of $86,000, leading to significant depreciation of investor assets.
Institutional Fund Movements: If BlackRock's RWA tokenization fund experiences large-scale redemptions, it could undermine market confidence in real asset tokenization and cast a shadow over the development of the crypto market.
5. Recommended Response Strategies
1. Monitor Policy Signals: Focus on the progress of Trump's trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's June meeting to strategically position and grasp market dynamics.
2. Reduce Leverage and Diversify Holdings: Avoid high-multiplier contracts, allocate part of the portfolio to stablecoins or gold ETFs for hedging; focus on cyclical asset classes such as RWA and AI tokens to diversify risks.
3. Strengthen Risk Control: Preserve principal.
4. On-chain Data Tracking: Monitor changes in long-term holders' holdings and exchange balances through Glassnode, anticipate large holder movements, and keep up with the smart money market rhythm.
The current market is driven by policies and liquidity, but high leverage, regulatory uncertainties, and geopolitical risks pose major threats. It is recommended that investors maintain defensive positions and prioritize strategy adjustments based on on-chain data and macro indicators.
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