1. Hotspot Focus: Three Major Engines Drive BTC Close to Historical Highs
1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, Liquidity Gate Reopens
Latest Data: US April CPI Year-on-Year Drops to 2.1%, Core PCE Falls Below 2.5%, CME FedWatch Shows June Rate Cut Probability Soars to 82%, USD Index DXY Drops to 98.3, Hitting a 12-Month Low;
Market Reaction: Gold Breaks $3,500/Ounce; BTC and Gold's 90-Day Correlation Rises to 0.65, Hedge Against Inflation Demand Surges[].
2. Bitcoin Layer2 Erupts: Stacks Surge 40% in One Day
Technical Breakthrough: Stacks Nakamoto Upgrade Completed, Achieving Full Support for BTC On-Chain Smart Contracts, TVL (Total Locked Value) Increased by $1.7 Billion in 24 Hours;
Ecological Linkage: Stacks-based DeFi Protocol ALEX Launches BTC Staking Service, Annual Yield Reaches 8%-15%, Attracting Over 30,000 BTC to Enter[].
3. Giant Whale Activity: Chip Game Before 110,000 Mark
On-Chain Signals: In the Past 24 Hours, Addresses Holding Over 1,000 BTC Increased Their Holdings by 21,000 Coins (About $224 Million), While Coinbase Saw a Single Large Sale of 5,000 BTC, Long-Short Duel Intensifies[].
2. Institutional Holdings: Giants Increase Positions and Strategies Diverge
1. Spot ETF Holdings Scale (As of May 20)
Institutions BTC Holdings Weekly Change Position Value Direction Interpretation
BlackRock IBIT 285,000 Coins +4.2% $30.4 Billion Net Inflow for 13 Consecutive Weeks
Fidelity FBTC 167,000 Coins +2.8% $17.8 Billion Pension Fund Entrusts Purchase Accelerates
ARKB 63,000 Coins -1.5% $6.7 Billion Partial Profit Taking
2. New Developments in Hedge Funds
Citadel: Secretly Building BTC Futures Options Position, Betting on Breakthrough of $120,000 Before November, Nominal Position Exceeds $5 Billion;
Bridgewater Fund: Dalio Publicly States 'BTC's Proportion in Family Office Allocation Rises to 3%', Doubling Compared to 2024[].
3. Policy News: Regulatory Easing and Global Compliance
1. United States: SEC Compromise Signal Released
Key Progress: SEC and Ripple Settlement Finalized, XRP Clearly Defined as 'Non-Security'; Market Speculates BTC Spot ETF Options May Be Approved in Q3;
Legislative Push: House Passes (21st Century Financial Innovation Act), Demanding SEC Clarify Cryptocurrency Securities Definition Standards Within 90 Days[].
2. Asia: Japan and South Korea Joint Action
Japan: Approves Mitsubishi UFJ Bank to Issue BTC-Backed Loans, Allowing Companies to Use BTC as Balance Sheet Assets;
Hong Kong: First Batch of BTC Spot ETFs Listed Today, Southern Eastern and Huaxia Fund's Fundraising Scale Exceeds $800 Million;
Singapore: Temasek Leads Establishment of $5 Billion Asian Cryptocurrency Stable Fund to Prevent Black Swan Impacts[].
4. Breakthrough Probability: Multi-Dimensional Model Calculation and Key Resistance
1. Quantitative Model Predictions (As of May 21)
Model Dimension Probability of Breaking 110,000 Core Basis
On-Chain Cost Distribution 68% Short-Term Holder Cost Line ($105,200) Solidified
Options Implied Volatility 72% 110,000 Call Options Open Interest Increased by 300% Weekly
Macro Liquidity 65% Global Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion Year-on-Year +8.4%
2. Key Technical Levels
Support: $105,000 (30-Day EMA + Fibonacci 38.2% Retracement);
Resistance: $107,500 (2024 Historical High Lock-In Zone), Breakthrough Directly Targets $110,000;
Transaction Volume: Must Maintain 24-Hour Trading Volume Above $30 Billion, Currently at $27.8 Billion (Gap 7.3%)[].
5. Risk Warning: Three Major Potential Variables
Regulatory Reversal: If SEC Suddenly Halts ETF Options Progress, It May Trigger Short-Term Panic Selling;
Leverage Liquidation: Current Overall Long-Short Leverage Ratio Reaches 3.2:1; A 5% Price Correction Will Liquidate $2.7 Billion in Long Positions;
US Stock Correlation: Nasdaq P/E Ratio (32x) Deviates from Historical Average; If Tech Stocks Crash, BTC May Be Dragged Down[].
6. Decisive Moment: Investor Strategy Recommendations
Short Term (24-48 Hours):
If Price Stabilizes Above $107,500, Can Chase Long Positions to $110,000-$112,000 Range;
Stop Loss Below 105,000, Short to Support Level of 103,000.
Mid to Long Term:
Regular Investment Window: Increase Position When Retracing to the $100,000-$102,000 Range;
Ecological Layout: Key Allocation to BTC Layer2 (Stacks), Staking Protocols (Babylon).
Conclusion
The Probability of BTC Standing Above 110,000 Tonight Exceeds 65%; The Triple Benefits of Liquidity, Technology, and Policy Form a Resonance. However, the High-Leverage Market Amplifies Volatility; Investors Are Advised to Strictly Adhere to Risk Control and Avoid Being Overly Aggressive. Pay Attention to Tonight's 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Data, Which May Be the Final Trigger!#BTC挑战11万大关 #BTC走势分析