In recent days, many fans have asked me the most frequent question: 'Brother Hao, is this rise the return of the bull market?' Seeing this market, BTC breaking 106,000, ETH also standing above 2500, altcoins following suit, especially MEME, AI, RWA, DePIN and other popular sectors, taking off one after another, looking at the accounts, everyone is starting to get restless.

But in today's article, I'm only discussing one theme:

Is this rise the start of a bull market, or a harvesting game by smart money?

One, who is behind the rapid rise of this market?

Everyone should be clear: the market started to rise in mid-May, and the first to move were not altcoins, but BTC and ETH. What does this indicate? It indicates that funds began to gradually test from mainstream coins.

You can understand it as: the market big brother goes first to see if there are followers, then leads the younger brothers to start. Moreover, if you look at the data, ETF funds have recently started to flow back in, especially the large institutional funds, which have been flowing back for several consecutive days. This indicates that they have not given up on this market, but have instead taken advantage of the panic to buy on the dip.

I've always said: smart money doesn't enter the market when the heat is highest, but starts to build positions when you are most hesitant.

So the underlying logic of this rise is institutions testing the waters + retail investors panic selling + sector rotation driving the rhythm. Do you think the rise is because the bull market has arrived? No, it’s because they bought when you were falling, and now that you start chasing, they are selling.

Two, how to look at the technical aspects? Don’t just look at 'how much it has risen', but look at 'how it has risen'

BTC has pulled from 101,000 to around 107,000, which is already close to the previous high pressure level in the short term. The daily level has continuously risen but the volume has limited expansion, making it more like a mid-term rebound. ETH is even more typical, technically having broken the bullish flag pattern, and MACD has re-gold crossed, with my target seen between 3000-3200. But here I want to remind you: ETH is more likely to strengthen this time because there is favorable anticipation for ETF approvals in the game, but it is not a positive outcome.

The first to move among altcoins are MEME coins like PEPE, WIF, FLOKI. This wave of fluctuations of 30% or 50% is eye-catching, but it is also the easiest to harvest attention. You need to understand one principle: the faster the market rises, the greater the risk; the slower it rises, the longer the opportunity.

Not chasing highs this round is the biggest protection for retail investors.

Three, fund logic: not comprehensive inflow, just local attempts

Let's take a look at the overall performance of the funds:

1) Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have decreased, and market risk appetite has rebounded;

2) Bitcoin ETF has seen inflows for several consecutive days, and institutions have built up their positions;

3) ETH ETF has entered a game phase, creating emotional explosion points in the market;

Multiple popular projects are launching mainnets, issuing tokens, and making big moves, and the topics are enough to attract attention.

Therefore, funds choose sectors to 'test the waters' rather than 'go all in'. This also determines that the current market situation is not a full bull market, but a structurally rotational bull market.

Simply put: smart money is trading sectors, retail investors are following trends; smart money is laying out themes, retail investors are copying hot searches. If you want to keep up with the rhythm, it's not about which coin has gone up, but about which sector has funds, themes, and actions coming next.

Four, what are retail investors most afraid of now? It's not that they can't choose coins, but that the rhythm is wrong.

During this phase, the operation I most advise against is 'chasing after it rises, cutting losses after it falls'. Many people cut their coins at low points a while back, and now that it’s rising, they want to buy back, isn’t that just being played by the market?

The logic behind making real money in this market is not based on luck, but on the following three points:

1. See the mainstream trend clearly:

BTC breaking 107,000, ETH stabilizing at 2600, is the confirmation of the trend; until then, operate steadily and don’t go heavy.

2. The rhythm of sector rotation:

The first round is mainstream coins; the second round is MEME and AI; the next may be RWA and DePIN. So now focus on sectors where the narrative has not yet been played but funds have already entered.

For example:

AI track reference: FET, AKT, RNDR

DePIN track reference: Nodle, HNT, Onita (this is what I have been paying attention to for a long time, focusing on hardware nodes + AI computing power integration)

RWA track reference: ONDO, POLYX newly launched small-cap coins, if combined with KOL shout orders + community hype, there may also be short-term pumps.

3. No heavy positions, no obsession with battles:

In a volatile market, just do wave trading. The current market is 'setting off firecrackers', not 'launching nuclear bombs'. Those who go all in will be washed out 99% of the time. Reasonable distribution of positions and setting stop-loss and take-profit points are key to survival.

Five, Brother Hao's operation strategy share (current rhythm)

Let me share my current allocation ideas with you, not investment advice, just for reference: maintain 50% position in mainstream coins, focus on whether BTC can stabilize its trend and whether ETH can stay above the 2600–2700 range;

30% on rotation sectors, focusing on popular themes that are experiencing rotation and supplementary growth (be cautious with high MEME positions) 20% on new coins and potential small coins, watching project trends, community heat, and KOL cooperation.

Absolutely no full positions, especially before the market has broken out with significant volume, maintain an operating attitude of 'having chips, having confidence'.

Six, to summarize in one sentence: the current rebound is a rehearsal for the bull market, not the climax.

Don't rush to the climax. A real bull market must be BTC continuously hitting new highs, ETH breaking out with volume, funds entering comprehensively, and all altcoins rising together to be called a bull market. Now it is just a training for the bull market. If you do it right, you can get the script; if you do it wrong, you won't even have the qualification to get on the bus before the next official bull market arrives. Market rebounds are not a return of faith, but a re-establishment of rhythm by the big players. Retail investors need to transform from 'leeks' to 'old leeks', relying not on shouting orders, but on strategy and rhythm.

Finally, a piece of advice: the bull market doesn't lack opportunities, it lacks your planned persistence until that day.

I am Brother Hao. We don’t make retail investors, we are retail investors with judgment, discipline, and rhythm.

If you find this article useful, remember to like, bookmark, and share it with those brothers and sisters who still jump in whenever there is a rise.

Next time the market breaks a node, I will come back to take you deep into the next round of hotspots.