XRP has dropped 8.5% over the past week and traded below $2.50 for the last four days. The launch of XRP futures on CME has raised concerns about price manipulation. Analysts point to similar patterns observed following the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.
Technical indicators are also issuing warning signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Ichimoku Cloud, and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines indicate a weakening momentum. Some believe that XRP could still rise if it breaks through a key resistance level. But for now, the short-term outlook remains bearish.
XRP futures raise concerns about manipulation as the RSI signals weakening momentum.
Analysts warn that the launch of XRP futures on CME could facilitate price manipulation. Tactics such as 'naked' short selling and rehypothecation raise serious concerns.
Similar launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have led to sharp price declines. Critics fear that XRP may follow the same path, especially around expiration dates when whales often push prices down.
Despite this, some see XRP futures as a step towards institutional adoption and a potential spot ETF. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP is currently at 42.34, up from 35.18 two days ago, but down from 52.32 yesterday.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is used to assess whether an asset is overbought or oversold; values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, while below 30 indicate oversold conditions.
With a value of 42.34, XRP is neither overbought nor oversold, but the recent drop from 52.32 may indicate weakening momentum or early signs of bearish pressure. If the RSI continues to fall, it could signal further downside risk in the short term.
XRP faces resistance as Ichimoku signals indicate a bearish trend.
The Ichimoku Cloud chart reveals a bearish momentum shift. The price is currently trading below the blue Tenkan-sen line (conversion line) and the red Kijun-sen line (base line), indicating short-term and medium-term weakness.
Additionally, the Kumo (cloud) ahead has turned red and has slightly widened, reflecting growing resistance and potential downward pressure in the near future. The Chikou Span line (green lagging line) is also positioned below the price and the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook from a lagging perspective.
As the price attempts to stay above the cloud and fails to break key resistance levels, the setup indicates that XRP is still in a corrective phase.
If it cannot recover the Tenkan-sen and decisively enter the cloud, the risk of a decline remains elevated.
XRP traders are watching for the formation of a 'death cross' as support approaches.
The EMA lines for XRP are starting to converge, and a potential 'death cross' — when the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA — may soon confirm a bearish trend.
If this formation occurs, the price of XRP could test the support level at $2.30. A break below this level could open the way for further declines to $2.158, and in the case of strong downward momentum, possibly to $2.07.
However, if it can change course and regain bullish momentum, the first key resistance to watch is at $2.449.
A clean breakout above this level would improve the technical outlook and could trigger a rally to $2.65 — an increase of approximately 14%.
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