⚡️Just found this chart, there is a key number - SOMA: $14,825,704,800.

Many people don't understand what this means, but the core question is simple: Has the Federal Reserve secretly started QE again?

In simple terms, technically speaking, yes; mechanism-wise, no; structurally in the market, it hasn't really stopped.

Let me give you an example and you'll understand -

Your household decides to pay off a maximum of 5000 yuan in loans each month (QT cap), but one month suddenly has 8000 yuan of debt maturing.

You can't default, so you make up the 3000 yuan to continue 'buying' part of the debt, and then slowly pay it back, ensuring you haven't exceeded that 5000 yuan budget limit.

This 3000 yuan is the 'SOMA add-on'.

An increase in SOMA replenishment scale indicates that QT has started to hesitate. What the Federal Reserve is doing now is this: claiming QT, but secretly buying bonds to replenish. The nominal shrinking of the balance sheet is still there, but the marginal liquidity is turning.

Since March, the QT balance sheet reduction cap has been lowered from 25 billion to 5 billion, sending a signal to the market: 'I'm afraid to shrink too fast fearing something bad will happen.'

This replenishment operation is different from the proactive liquidity release (QE) we usually see; it doesn't count as QE mechanism-wise, but in terms of market impact, the effect might not be much different, as it does release money.

Because the market doesn't look at whether you are doing QE, but whether you are continuing to inject liquidity into the system.

So, you don't need to wait for the Federal Reserve to formally announce 'we are restarting QE', just look at how it fears stopping and starts buying back bonds, and you'll know -

The next round of liquidity cycle has already secretly begun in the details.

The name doesn't matter, as long as the money comes in.

It's like the Federal Reserve doesn't really want to provide fuel anymore, but realizes that if it stops too quickly, the car will flip, so it starts to secretly add a bit of gas.

And #bitcoin is like a passenger sitting on the roof of the car:

You may not drive, but as long as the car is moving, it will soar!