$ETH Giant Whale Accumulation, Retail Investors Cut Losses! Will Ethereum Drop to 1300? Or Will the Major Players Forcefully Pump It?
Bear markets are full of fluctuations, bull markets rely on faith, but the current ETH trend has reached a critical point of long and short contest — the breakthrough is just tonight!
Remember: risk control is more important than operation, manage your stop losses, and let the market choose its direction.
1. Latest News:
Shanghai Upgrade Time Confirmed: The Ethereum Foundation has confirmed that the Shanghai upgrade mainnet will start in Q2 of 2023, with the core goal of enabling staking ETH withdrawals and optimizing EVM. Although developers discussed the possibility of Q1, it was ultimately delayed due to compatibility issues with the testnet. After the news was released, the market reaction was polarized:
1. Bullish Side: The delay safeguards technical stability, benefiting the ecosystem in the long run;
2. Bearish Side: The locking period for stakers is extended, raising short-term selling pressure expectations.
2. Technical Analysis: Volume Shrinking, MACD on the Edge of Life and Death
1. Trading volume has shrunk to 645,000, far below the 5-day/10-day moving averages, and the market has entered a 'playing dead mode.' If the volume continues to shrink, the support at 2312 is hard to maintain, with a target below at 1300; if it breaks through 2588 with increased volume, a short-term rebound can be expected.
2. MACD Indicator: DIF crosses below DEA, forming a death cross, MACD bar turns negative (-0.48), short-term bears dominate. If the price cannot quickly reclaim 2648, the downward channel will be fully opened.
3. Moving Average Pressure: The 5-day/10-day moving averages act as a ceiling for rebounds; if the price cannot stabilize at 2312, the moving average system will continue to exert pressure.
3. Comprehensive Judgment:
News Driven: If the Shanghai upgrade releases a clear timetable, bulls may take the opportunity to counterattack;
On-Chain Ambush: Giant whales accumulate at low prices, major players may be preparing to wash out before pumping;
Technical Resonance: 2312 is a four-hour level support, if lost, it opens up downward space.
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