Crypto Circle Morning Report: BTC Strongly Stabilizes, Beware of Two Black Swans!

Good morning, crypto friends! Last night, BTC staged a dramatic deep V movement, with a minimum pullback to 104,000 before quickly rebounding. As of the time of writing, it has regained stability at 106,000, showing strong bullish performance. From the 4-hour K-line perspective, the lower shadow is very long, and trading volume has significantly increased at low levels, indicating clear signs of major players accumulating positions, which shows that the market has a high level of recognition for the current price level.

Recently, there has been significant good news regarding the U.S. stablecoin bill (Genius Bill), with the probability of passing now exceeding 80%. If this bill is enacted, it means that stablecoins will officially gain compliant status, leading major financial institutions to enter the market to issue stablecoins, which is expected to bring a massive influx of new users to the crypto space. The stablecoins held by these new users will directly convert into purchasing power for cryptocurrencies, injecting strong momentum into the market and giving rise to a wave of small bull market that is worth looking forward to.

However, the trading market is always full of uncertainties, and two major black swan events cannot be ignored:

Tensions in the Middle East: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that nuclear negotiations with the U.S. will not succeed, and the U.S. claims that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. If conflict breaks out, it could trigger large-scale regional conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a sell-off of risk assets, with BTC potentially dropping more than 5% and altcoins falling by as much as 15%.

Escalation of trade friction: The aftereffects of Trump's tariffs continue to ferment, with unilateral high tariffs imposed on certain countries, which may lead to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, thereby dragging BTC down by more than 3%, with altcoins possibly dropping by 10%.

In the face of potential risks, the following strategies are recommended:

Stick to core assets: As the anchor asset in the crypto space, no changes are needed for BTC holdings, and it can be appropriately reduced when it rises to 120,000.

Swing trading altcoins: Take advantage of BTC's short-term fluctuations, buy low during declines, and take profits in a timely manner after following the trend.

Small capital layout in the primary market: Focus on high-quality on-chain projects, taking small positions for high returns.

If you want to get more detailed consultations, you can follow Brother K, who will guide you through major events in the crypto circle, helping you seize trends in advance and safeguard your positions!