The Rise and Fall of the Crypto World: 16 Bloody Survival Rules from a Veteran Trader
After experiencing three liquidations and two cuts, I finally exchanged 50 million in tuition for these market truths. Last year, witnessing the "needle insert rehearsal" in a risk control room of a certain exchange completely overturned my understanding of this market.
1. The Secret Game of Exchanges
1. The Moat Effect of Platform Tokens
Data shows: In the extreme market conditions of 2022, HT fell by 42%, significantly lower than the average decline of 68% for mainstream coins.
Key Indicator: The average anti-drop ability of the three major exchange tokens reached 31% during the crash.
2. The Dark Code of Stablecoin Issuance
Historical Pattern: After a single issuance of over 500 million USDC, the probability of market reversal within 14 days is 91%.
Typical Case: After the issuance in September 2023, ETH was halved in two weeks.
2. The Long and Short Traps of Institutions
3. The Secrets of MicroStrategy's Holdings
When holdings increase by over 10%, the average increase over the following 90 days reaches 57%.
But beware: After the increase in December 2021, a 50% drop occurred.
4. The Curse of Options Expiration
In the three days before quarterly options settlement, volatility surged by 217%.
Experienced Strategy: Positioning deep out-of-the-money contracts for the following month in advance.
3. The Morse Code on the Blockchain
5. Miner Transfer Alerts
When the daily transfer volume of the top five mining pools exceeds 20,000 BTC, the risk of decline is 89%.
Death Signal: Accompanied by a 300% surge in deposit addresses on exchanges.
6. Fake Breakout Identification
The first breakout after 45 days of sideways movement has a 63% probability of being a false breakout.
Core Validation: Need to monitor the changes in open interest of derivatives.
4. The Reflexive Game of Emotions
7. The Death Cross of Hot Searches
When "cryptocurrency" simultaneously tops the hot search lists of the three major social platforms, the probability of a crash within 48 hours is 94%.
8. The Funding Rate Scam
After a positive funding rate continues for 5 days, it suddenly reverses, with a 79% probability of a long squeeze.
Real Opportunity: A reversal trend following a negative funding rate maintained for 7 days.
In this bloodthirsty jungle, I have seen too many people mistake coincidence for inevitability. Remember, true risk often hides within the "opportunities" that everyone can see. Stay skeptical, stay fearful, it may be your only talisman!
In this market, living longer is more important than making money quickly.
If you don’t understand coins yourself, it’s advisable to follow Wenge!
Whether it’s fresh goods or harmony! Success is not just about luck; choice may be greater than effort.
