Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again sparked a frenzy of fantasies about a '150,000 Bitcoin,' with countless people fixating on the candlestick charts in excitement. But the harsh reality is: the seeds for the end of this rally have already been sown. While you are dreaming of turning a 'bicycle into a motorcycle,' the manipulators are setting up a 'double kill' meat grinder.

1. The truth behind the lack of momentum: $10,800 has become the 'graveyard for bulls' ❶ The key resistance level's death curse. Bitcoin (BTC) has attempted to break through $10,800 five times in the last three months without success; each time it reached that price, there was a 5%-8% pullback. On a technical level: $10,800 is a dense trading zone before the crash in 2022, with over 2 million BTC trapped, forming a 'massive pressure zone.' ❷ A fatal signal of volume-price divergence. During the last surge (May 20), the trading volume was only 60% of what it was when it broke $10,000 in December 2023, a typical 'volume-less price increase'; on-chain data: whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) sold off 12,000 BTC in a single day in the $10,500-$10,800 range, indicating clear signs of distribution by the main players.

2. The 'prisoner's dilemma' of the manipulators: too many short positions to dare a plunge. ❶ The Sword of Damocles of short positions. Currently, the total short position of BTC across the network has reached 150,000, a new high since the '519' crash in 2022; the manipulators are in a dilemma: directly crashing the market would require absorbing 150,000 short stop-loss orders, costing over $1.5 billion; maintaining a sideways trend would exhaust retail investors' patience, induce bulls to cut losses, and then launch a 'flash crash.' ❷ The bloody nature of long-short washing. In the past two weeks, the price of coins has oscillated widely between $10,200 and $10,800, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5%, and an average of over 30,000 liquidation events per day; a typical tactic: ramping up 2% in the morning to lure in buyers, crashing down 3% in the afternoon to kill shorts, and then bringing it back to the original point in the closing, achieving a 'double explosion' of longs and shorts.

3. High-level turning point warning: weekly chart turns bearish revealing the 'exhaustion truth.' ❶ Trend reversal on the weekly chart. The weekly chart of Bitcoin has formed a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, fully retracing the large bullish candle from the previous two weeks, indicating exhausted bullish momentum; historical pattern: after the last 10 weekly 'bearish engulfing' patterns, 8 times have led to sustained declines for 2-4 weeks, with an average drop of 18%. ❷ News-driven false prosperity. This round of the rally was mainly driven by news such as 'the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes' and 'rumors of ETF approvals,' rather than improvements in fundamentals; when the market realizes 'the Fed may restart interest rate hikes in June' and 'ETF approvals are delayed,' the news benefits will quickly reverse, and bulls will face a 'Davis double kill.'

4. Fatal misconceptions of retail investors: chasing highs and cutting losses based on 'feelings.' ❶ The death cycle of FOMO sentiment. Surveys show: 65% of retail investors chased the price increase when it broke $10,500, of which 80% did not set stop-loss orders; typical mentality: 'Everyone else is making money, I can't miss out' → chasing high and getting trapped → holding on → liquidation. ❷ The survival rule of abandoning fantasies. Short-term strategy: reduce positions on highs above $10,600 and stop-loss exit below $10,300; stay away from '150,000 Bitcoin' and similar hype groups to avoid emotional pollution. Long-term strategy: stay in cash and wait for a 'bullish engulfing' reversal signal on the weekly chart; if it breaks below $9,800, initiate 'bear market range' operations (focus on shorting during rebounds).

5. A wake-up call for dreamers: there is no myth of 'getting rich overnight' in the cryptocurrency world. ❶ The inevitable conclusion from a mathematical perspective. To rise from $10,000 to $150,000, it needs to increase 15 times, meaning Bitcoin's market cap must swell from $200 billion to $3 trillion, exceeding 25% of gold's total market cap (about $12 trillion), which is almost impossible in the current global economic environment; a more realistic scenario: main players use the '150,000 expectation' to unload, and retail investors take over, initiating a 'slow bear mode.' ❷ The ultimate harvesting path of the manipulators. Phase 1 (current): induce a bullish illusion, making retail investors believe 'a breakout is imminent'; Phase 2 (next 2 weeks): suddenly drop below $10,000, triggering programmed trading stop-losses; Phase 3 (mid-June): rebound to around $10,500, completing the 'short trap,' then initiating a crash mode. Conclusion: Staying awake amidst the frenzy is more important than crying during a crash. The cryptocurrency world is never short of 'getting rich overnight' legends, but those who truly survive to the next cycle are the 'awakened ones who are fearful when others are greedy.' Abandon the fantasy of '150,000 Bitcoin' and face the cruel reality of the current 'long-short meat grinder' — being able to preserve your principal in this turbulence is already a victory over 80% of retail investors.

Remember: The essence of making money in the cryptocurrency world is not about 'predicting tops and bottoms,' but rather 'acknowledging that you cannot predict tops and bottoms.' When you stop pursuing 'getting rich overnight' and instead focus on 'surviving,' real opportunities may quietly arise.#币安Alpha推出MERL交易竞赛 ##币安Alpha空投SOON