🔥BRUTAL🔥
Do you remember that the Atlanta Fed successfully predicted a DECREASE in GDP in Q1 and investors were scared⁉️
🧨Now the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a GDP GROWTH of 2.5% in Q2.
Why would this be POSITIVE for financial markets and what accounts for such a change⁉️
👉It is positive for the markets because it dispels fears of imminent recession.
▪️If the economy continues to grow, corporate profits remain stable and investors regain confidence.
▪️This pushes both stocks and crypto upwards.
Why did the projection change so much⁉️
👉The GDP in the first quarter was weak and recorded a CONTRACTION, raising concerns about a RECESSION.
👉But it wasn't due to a “broken” economy, but rather a technical effect:
🔸In the fourth quarter, many companies advanced purchases and accumulated inventory due to fears of new tariffs from Trump.
🔸This artificially inflated GDP in Q4 and left Q1 with less activity due to a rebound effect.
🔸Many companies over-purchased supplies in December, and that’s why they purchased much less in Q1 2025.
🔸Additionally, the Philly Fed New Orders Index had its largest monthly jump since 1968, suggesting that companies are reactivating their orders.