$ETH is currently in a critical turning point window, with technical analysis showing that 2425-2355 is the support area for the bullish-bearish dividing line.
The psychological barrier at the integer level is the 4-hour EMA30 moving average (approximately 2400 technical support extending from the dense area of on-chain chips on May 18).
If it breaks 2355 with significant volume, it may trigger stop-loss selling pressure, leading to a deep correction to the 2200-2300 range.
Current price fluctuations are significantly influenced by the sentiment in the US stock market, maintaining a high correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap index.
Whether $BTC can hold the 100,000 level becomes a key variable. If BTC maintains a high-level consolidation, ETH, bolstered by favorable ecological expectations (such as BlackRock's BUIDL fund having 95% allocation in ETH ecological assets) and oversold recovery demand, is likely to embark on a rebound.
It is essential to closely monitor changes in trading volume on the 4-hour level; if the breakout is not accompanied by a volume exceeding 150,000 ETH, one should be wary of false breakout risks.
