On January 20, 2025, $BTC reached a new historical peak at $109,026. Nearly 4 months later, the price is still hovering around $105,000–$107,000. For many, this could have been the cycle peak. But looking back at history, comparing technical data, on-chain, macroeconomic, and market behavior, things are not that simple.

Let's analyze each part.

1. Is the ATH too early?

In the last 3 cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin's price peak usually occurs 12–18 months after halving. This time it's different:

• Halving occurs on April 19, 2024.

• Bitcoin peaked at $109k on January 20, 2025.

• That is, about 9 months after halving, the shortest ever.

Is that unusual? Maybe.

But this time there is a new variable: spot ETFs – an extremely strong demand source from institutions, pulling the market ahead of historical cycles. What has never happened in past cycles is Bitcoin reaching an ATH before halving (in early 2024 it surpassed $69k).

If the market has 'released' all momentum in just 9 months, then the peak may have been established. But if there is still momentum behind, especially institutional cash flow, then $109k is just the mid-cycle peak – similar to April 2021.

2. Lowest ROI in history

From the bottom of ~$15,500 (11/2022) to the peak of $109k, Bitcoin has increased approximately 7 times (+600%). Compared to previous cycles:

• 2013: increased ~100x

• 2017: increased ~20x

• 2021: increased ~22x

This time: increased 7x. The lowest.

Many people look at this and say: 'Bitcoin's market cap is already large, it can't increase several dozen times like before.' That's true. With a market cap of over 2 trillion USD, it can't soar like it used to.

But the question to ask is: Is 7x enough to call it a peak?

For cautious individuals, it may be enough. But if ROI is used to conclude that the cycle has ended, then this time it's a bit too modest. If history repeats itself, there will be one last push – and that will be the 'blow-off top'.

3. Does the price structure resemble the double tops of 2013 and 2021?

Many similarities:

• Bitcoin reached an ATH in early 2024 (before halving) – similar to the peak in April 2021.

• Then rise further to $109k – like the push to $69k at the end of 2021.

• And then… stagnate, adjust ~25% then rebound to the peak.

On the weekly chart:

• RSI is creating negative divergence.

• Volume is decreasing as prices approach the peak.

• Open Interest is also decreasing – derivative cash flow is gradually withdrawing.

Everything is similar to the double top formation of 2021.

That is:

• If $109k is the first peak, the second peak is forming in May–June 2025.

• If the market cannot create a new peak, it will be a complete pattern, hoping for a late breakout, similar to 2013 (peak in April then a big peak in November).

4. ETF – Driving force or selling pressure?

As of May 2025:

• The Bitcoin spot ETF in the US has attracted over $60 billion USD since its launch.

• Recent weeks have still recorded steady net inflows, even though prices are high.

• Listed companies continue to buy more, haven't seen anyone selling.

That means the buying force from institutions is still present.

No signs of selling pressure, nor large outflows from ETF funds.

Moreover, the Fed begins to signal interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. If that happens, liquidity increases, and ETFs attract even more money.

=> The peak of Bitcoin may not have arrived if cash flow continues to enter strongly, and global liquidity remains favorable.

5. Technical and on-chain data: not too 'hot'

• Weekly RSI is creating divergence, but has not fallen into extreme overbought territory like previous peaks.

• MVRV Z-Score – valuation indicator – is around 2–3, not in bubble territory (>7).

• Long-term holders are still holding strong. Some are taking small profits, but most still have 'diamond hands'.

• Miners show no signs of heavy selling. The network remains stable, hash rate is high.

• Fear & Greed Index is at ~74: greedy, but not extreme (previous peaks are usually >90).

• Retail FOMO has not yet reached the levels of the 2017 or 2021 peaks. Twitter has not exploded, and altcoins have not been 'blown up' like the old meme season.

In summary:

• The market is in a slight euphoria phase, not yet in a 'price craze' state.

• There is still room to… explode.

6. Conclusion: Is $109k the peak? Maybe. But not necessarily.

For those who prioritize safety, taking profits in the $100k+ range is not wrong.

But to call $109k the final peak of the cycle, more time is needed to confirm. Because currently:

• The time is too short compared to previous cycles.

• ROI is too modest.

• Market sentiment has not reached an extreme state.

• And institutional cash flow has not stopped yet.

The most reasonable scenario:

• $109k is the first peak.

• A sufficient correction has occurred.

• And we are in a recovery phase towards the peak.

• If there's a final FOMO, hopefully the real peak will come by the end of 2025.

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